Wednesday, January 02, 2008


I was just thinking that I never made my Iowa predictions. Memories of how off the pundits were in the last go round (just Democrats) are strong. But with iron determination and a jaunty Hiyo Silver, I proclaim:

Romney will win among the Republican candidates in Iowa. Two reasons. First, we are about to see his organizational skills at work. Getting people to the caucuses is what it is all about. Second, though it's all sound and fury signifying nothing, Huckabee has looked a little disorganized, even occasionally buffoonish, the last week to ten days. Huck would have been better off if his momentum was surging now, and even a second place finish would made him look like the man. Remember, in politics, it is only the smoke and mirrors that count.

Hillary will win among the Democratic candidates in Iowa. Why? Just a feeling. One that could evaporate with watching five minutes of Fox or CNN or surfing onto Real Clear Politics. Sort of like the kind of feeling I get as to who will win the Super Bowl each year. Unfortunately, I'm virtually always wrong about that.

The three Democratic candidates are virtually even, such that a hair's breadth victory by any of them tomorrow means only what the spin rooms generate. Winning in politics is a Humpty Dumptyish word -- it means what each spinner chooses it to mean. Nothing more. Nothing less. Each will declare the victory, the comeback factor, and the big mo.

What matters to this pseudo-pundit is how Mr. McCain does, and I predict a third place finish, better than everyone expected, and with considerably less effort than some of the other folks. Just enough to give him the momentum he needs to waltz into New Hampshire, turn the tables on Romney there and then jet into the first super-primary on Feb. five on all cylinders. I'm out of metaphors.

Of course, Giuliani is patiently choosing to wait these two small states out, taking his time until he can count on New York, California and co. a little more than a month from now. By then, the question will be, did he choose wisely or poorly?

1 comment:

  1. Anonymous8:56 AM

    Giuliani blows the others out of the water on Super Tuesday. McCain spoils Romney's campaign and gets his money from New Hampshire on. Hillary loses Iowa and New Hampshire and still wins the nomination (Edwards surprises everyone in Iowa, essentially ending Obama's campaign, though he still has enough steam to win New Hampshire).


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I started this blog in September, 2006. Mostly, it is where I can talk about things that interest me, which I otherwise don't get to do all that much, about some remarkable people who should not be forgotten, philosophy and theories (like Don Foster's on who wrote A Visit From St. Nicholas and my own on whether Santa is mostly derived from a Norse god) and analysis of issues that concern me. Often it is about books. I try to quote accurately and to say when I am paraphrasing (more and more). Sometimes I blow the first name of even very famous people, often entertainers. I'm much better at history, but once in a while I see I have written something I later learned was not true. Sometimes I fix them, sometimes not. My worst mistake was writing that Beethoven went blind, when he actually went deaf. Feel free to point out an error. I either leave in the mistake, or, if I clean it up, the comment pointing it out. From time to time I do clean up grammar in old posts as, over time I have become more conventional in my grammar, and I very often write these when I am falling asleep and just make dumb mistakes. It be nice to have an editor, but . . . .