So, who is the best QB right now? Not Tom Brady. Not Aaron Rodgers. I don't think either is top-ten anymore.
One thing you are not going to hear on NFL network and probably most sports radio/tv shows is that young black QBs are now most of the top QBs in the game. This is how I rate the top ten right now based on this season. Not their careers, just the last season - that is, now. Obviously, my opinion, but based on judgment, not any particular stat.
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Russell Wilson
Drew Brees
DeSean Watson
Kirk Cousins
Ryan Tannehill
Jimmy Garoppolo
Derek Carr
Teddy Bridgewater (though limited opportunity).
Russell Wilson isn't so young, but, I've been arguing that he has been, on average, the best QB since he came into the league and was kind of a template for the other three, though there were predecessors like Randall Cunningham and Michael Vick. But, neither of those two were the best QBs in the league like these four.
I have no idea if it has anything to do with race because even studying that statistic would have people shouting racism. Could be a fluke. But four out of five are black and five out of ten, though black QBs are far from the majority in the league yet.
Obviously, looking at the top five, excluding Brees, athleticism has a lot to do with it. And, we will see next year how Roethlisberger is when he comes back, and Taysom Hill hasn't really been given a chance. If you gave me a team to build, I'd consider him before Brady, Rodgers or Rivers right now.
With Brady and the Pats out for the playoffs after one game, I'm rooting for San Francisco and Jimmy Garoppolo, because I like both. Here are stats from the first full season as a starter of three famous older QBs compared to Garoppolo - best stats for each category in bold.
Pass completion Pass % Yds/game Yds/throw TDs INTs TD/int Passer rating
Aaron Rodgers 63.6 252.4 7.5 28 13 2.15 93.8
Tom Brady* 63.9 189.53 6.9 18 12 1.5 86.5
Drew Brees 60. 205.25 6.2 17 16 1.06 76.9
Jimmy Garoppolo 69.1 248.6 8.4 27 13 2.08 102.0
*Brady played in 15 games and started 14. Close enough as the stats are mostly averages. You can add a TD and an interception for Brady if it makes you happy. Doesn't really make much difference here if you compare the stats.
Garoppolo had a better first full season as a starter than any of them, though he was also inconsistent, but never bad. Rodger's first full year was almost as good. Even in the categories Rodgers led in, Garoppolo was literally right behind but way ahead in those categories he was first in. You can also make an argument that Garoppolo had more experience than any of them at this same point, as this is his 6th season. But, not a good argument. He had only started 10 games before this year (and was pretty good). No, we can't say he had a first full season like Pat Mahomes, DeSean Watson or Lamar Jackson. But, what I'm saying is, he was pretty good.
And, now, he's in the Super Bowl, which is pretty good too. I will add a post-script to this post after the game, but, I want to predict, before it, that he is going to have a really good game. Look, we all know how good Mahomes is. We already know, health a given, that he is a future Hall of Famer. No one will be surprised if he wins the game MVP and sets a few records.
But, no one expects it of Garoppolo. People are saying about him, unproven, and I guess he is to some extent. Then again, do you know he was the most accurate deep passer in the league this year? Not Mahomes.
Look, he can have a bad or ordinary game and then this prediction is a black mark (which I will immediately forget and keep predicting, like everyone else). But, it's too easy to predict in retrospect. Yes, he barely threw in the two previous playoff games, but that wasn't because they didn't trust him, it's because the running game was on fire. Naturally, KC is ready for that, like they were ready for Derrick Henry. So, what will SF do? Pass.
Don't forget, Jimmy G outshone the great Drew Brees this year in a real shoot-out. He had the 5th highest passer rating in the league. He's cool and apparently learned from Belichick and Brady don't give up, if it wasn't in his DNA already.
And, yes, yes, he's disgustingly handsome. Too many of my female friends tell me that for me to disbelieve it. But, discount that - or don't hate him for it, either. I'm rooting for him and think I would even if the Pats had a decent team this year and made it.
No one is more fickle than a sport's "expert" and if he wins, especially if he has a great game, he will be lionized by a bunch of "experts" who knew it. Not what I'm hearing now and want to buy this stock before it pops.
I'll add one more thing. I don't see anyone taking up Brady. If they do, they are foolish. He wants over 30 million. Yes, he was grossly underpaid all these years by choice, one of the things that made him so great, because it enabled the Pats to get other talent paid. But, he's not worth it anymore. It's not just that the Pats didn't have a great team. It was as good as it was last year and they won, most because of their awesome defense (at least then). I hear that the Chargers want him? Why? They couldn't win with Rivers at a time he was better than Brady (two years ago). Why would they win with a diminished Brady? I don't think the Pats should pay him that much either. Hire him as a coach and pay him as much as you like. But, time to retire, Tom. Don't go the prize-fighter route (most of them lose a lot at the ends of their careers, even the great ones). I know you still love to play, but time isn't loving you, or Rodgers or Rivers or other old-timers, of which he is Treebeard - eldest. Even the elves had to diminish in time. Okay, done with Lord of the Rings metaphors and the like. I doubt he'd know who they are. Just retire.
Be back with a post-script after the game. Enjoy.
One thing you are not going to hear on NFL network and probably most sports radio/tv shows is that young black QBs are now most of the top QBs in the game. This is how I rate the top ten right now based on this season. Not their careers, just the last season - that is, now. Obviously, my opinion, but based on judgment, not any particular stat.
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Russell Wilson
Drew Brees
DeSean Watson
Kirk Cousins
Ryan Tannehill
Jimmy Garoppolo
Derek Carr
Teddy Bridgewater (though limited opportunity).
Russell Wilson isn't so young, but, I've been arguing that he has been, on average, the best QB since he came into the league and was kind of a template for the other three, though there were predecessors like Randall Cunningham and Michael Vick. But, neither of those two were the best QBs in the league like these four.
I have no idea if it has anything to do with race because even studying that statistic would have people shouting racism. Could be a fluke. But four out of five are black and five out of ten, though black QBs are far from the majority in the league yet.
Obviously, looking at the top five, excluding Brees, athleticism has a lot to do with it. And, we will see next year how Roethlisberger is when he comes back, and Taysom Hill hasn't really been given a chance. If you gave me a team to build, I'd consider him before Brady, Rodgers or Rivers right now.
With Brady and the Pats out for the playoffs after one game, I'm rooting for San Francisco and Jimmy Garoppolo, because I like both. Here are stats from the first full season as a starter of three famous older QBs compared to Garoppolo - best stats for each category in bold.
Pass completion Pass % Yds/game Yds/throw TDs INTs TD/int Passer rating
Aaron Rodgers 63.6 252.4 7.5 28 13 2.15 93.8
Tom Brady* 63.9 189.53 6.9 18 12 1.5 86.5
Drew Brees 60. 205.25 6.2 17 16 1.06 76.9
Jimmy Garoppolo 69.1 248.6 8.4 27 13 2.08 102.0
*Brady played in 15 games and started 14. Close enough as the stats are mostly averages. You can add a TD and an interception for Brady if it makes you happy. Doesn't really make much difference here if you compare the stats.
Garoppolo had a better first full season as a starter than any of them, though he was also inconsistent, but never bad. Rodger's first full year was almost as good. Even in the categories Rodgers led in, Garoppolo was literally right behind but way ahead in those categories he was first in. You can also make an argument that Garoppolo had more experience than any of them at this same point, as this is his 6th season. But, not a good argument. He had only started 10 games before this year (and was pretty good). No, we can't say he had a first full season like Pat Mahomes, DeSean Watson or Lamar Jackson. But, what I'm saying is, he was pretty good.
And, now, he's in the Super Bowl, which is pretty good too. I will add a post-script to this post after the game, but, I want to predict, before it, that he is going to have a really good game. Look, we all know how good Mahomes is. We already know, health a given, that he is a future Hall of Famer. No one will be surprised if he wins the game MVP and sets a few records.
But, no one expects it of Garoppolo. People are saying about him, unproven, and I guess he is to some extent. Then again, do you know he was the most accurate deep passer in the league this year? Not Mahomes.
Look, he can have a bad or ordinary game and then this prediction is a black mark (which I will immediately forget and keep predicting, like everyone else). But, it's too easy to predict in retrospect. Yes, he barely threw in the two previous playoff games, but that wasn't because they didn't trust him, it's because the running game was on fire. Naturally, KC is ready for that, like they were ready for Derrick Henry. So, what will SF do? Pass.
Don't forget, Jimmy G outshone the great Drew Brees this year in a real shoot-out. He had the 5th highest passer rating in the league. He's cool and apparently learned from Belichick and Brady don't give up, if it wasn't in his DNA already.
And, yes, yes, he's disgustingly handsome. Too many of my female friends tell me that for me to disbelieve it. But, discount that - or don't hate him for it, either. I'm rooting for him and think I would even if the Pats had a decent team this year and made it.
No one is more fickle than a sport's "expert" and if he wins, especially if he has a great game, he will be lionized by a bunch of "experts" who knew it. Not what I'm hearing now and want to buy this stock before it pops.
I'll add one more thing. I don't see anyone taking up Brady. If they do, they are foolish. He wants over 30 million. Yes, he was grossly underpaid all these years by choice, one of the things that made him so great, because it enabled the Pats to get other talent paid. But, he's not worth it anymore. It's not just that the Pats didn't have a great team. It was as good as it was last year and they won, most because of their awesome defense (at least then). I hear that the Chargers want him? Why? They couldn't win with Rivers at a time he was better than Brady (two years ago). Why would they win with a diminished Brady? I don't think the Pats should pay him that much either. Hire him as a coach and pay him as much as you like. But, time to retire, Tom. Don't go the prize-fighter route (most of them lose a lot at the ends of their careers, even the great ones). I know you still love to play, but time isn't loving you, or Rodgers or Rivers or other old-timers, of which he is Treebeard - eldest. Even the elves had to diminish in time. Okay, done with Lord of the Rings metaphors and the like. I doubt he'd know who they are. Just retire.
Be back with a post-script after the game. Enjoy.
