Showing posts with label political update. Show all posts
Showing posts with label political update. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Political update for June, 2018

I don’t think I’ve done a political update since Fall, 2017 and it occurred to me, people might not know what to think about with respect to the president, metoo and the Baker case in the Supreme Court, all covered below, if I am no here to guide you, so . . . .

Trump, Trump and Trump. But . . . Trump.

There are almost no discussions about politics these days that don’t revolve around Trump. Trump, Trump, Trump. Meeto! I mean, me too. I read the NY Times every morning and multiple times a day. I I still love the paper and have since I was about 7, but, it is virtually insane when it comes to Trump. There is not a lot of difference between their headlines and SNL skits. “Trump Still Sucks!” might as well be the generic headline. The subtext in many articles, about the most far-fetched subjects is “Trump Leads us towards Totalitarian/Authoritarian/Nazi/Fascist Society!” as was just subtly present in an opinion by one of their more moderate columnists, Bret Stephens. In fact, after I wrote the above sentence, The Times had two articles one day – one comparing him to Bull Connor, as if he is sicking dogs and using water cannons on protesters and another which boldly proclaimed in the headline – Trump out to destroy the West. Seriously – while he is in Singapore negotiating to rid the Korean Peninsula of atomic weapons, just added sanctions against some Russians and doing so would destroy his own huge fortune.

Most presidents are controversial because we have an incredibly diverse country. In my lifetime, starting with Eisenhower – the following: JFK, LBJ, Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Clinton, Bush II and Obama were hated by their opposition to varying degrees. Eisenhower, Ford and Bush I all had their critics too, but I don’t think the level of vitriol was the same. Some critics are from President’s own parties. People infused with an ideology, political, religious, even scientific ideas, tend to dislike those who generally identify with them but differ on one or more major issues, sometimes more than they hate their opponents; they see them as apostates and it occasionally leads them to say that they would rather vote for the other side, such as Ann Coulter saying she would vote for Hillary Clinton over McCain, even though it would be detrimental to most of their own policy preferences. It’s ridiculous as many political things views are, unusual, but not all that uncommon.

Out of those in the despised group listed above, eventually, two of them, Reagan and Clinton, won over some of their most fervent haters, more by force of personality than by policies, as both tended to play nicely with their opposition, even when they were politically at odds with them and a certain amount of charm. They both left office fairly popular and remain so to this day, despite the Iran-Contra Affair and despite the fact that many people, even former supporters, think Bill Clinton was likely a rapist – at least once, which is enough. It was from Reagan on, in my view, that it became more difficult in modern times to say that the opposition was the “loyal opposition.” You frequently, from the moderate/independent perspective, got the feeling that a certain amount of American suffering under Bush, Obama or Trump, would make their opponents happy, just so it would be a black mark against the executive. Then they could say . . . see, see, see. Those on the other side didn’t just dislike the president, they seem to want them to suffer. They wanted their family and friends to suffer.  I think it began to accelerate under Bush. Prior to Reagan, I have to mostly rely on reading, though I have my memories of a few presidents back to Kennedy. And since Reagan, I’ve been paying attention. I don’t think it was much different before then, but the animosity is more intense now than at any time since Nixon.

But, more so than with any president I’ve ever seen before, hatred of Trump has probably “trumped” them all, perhaps even that aimed at Nixon, who was, after all, president during a period of great cultural upheaval (much more violent and perhaps partisan than now) and got caught up in the Watergate scandal. My argument is, admittedly, anecdotal and from personal experience, garnered not just from people I know, but from reading. As a nation, we are actually less violent than we were in the ‘60s, but I think it may be heading that way. It started to look like it at the last presidential election.

And, much more so than any of the others, Trump brought it on himself. With him, the animosity is not just about policy, although that is a big part of it. It was his mud-wrestling campaign. It was his refusal to denounce completely and unreservedly white nationalists, his embrace of “lock her up” and his smug, obnoxious smirk that not only helped him to win the campaign, but literally unhinged those who opposed him. Even his convention, which he told us was going to be wonderful, was a train wreck. Some of his speakers, Flynn and Giuliani, seemed somewhat deranged. As soon as he won I hoped they would not be in the administration (along with Bannon and Gingrich). Flynn was, for two seconds. So was Bannon, for some time longer. I guess Giuliani is now his personal counsel.

Enough background. We are closing in on a year and half into his first, and possibly only term. I’m sure we will start hearing soon how, if he loses the next election, he will declare martial law and himself president for life, because I heard that with Nixon, Reagan, Bush II and Obama. Maybe I just didn’t hear it with the others and it was said about them too.

How’s he doing? Being a clown does not mean you are doing badly. I've lost cases to attorneys who came off to everyone as clowns, obnoxious or idiots (those really hurt). And, he doing much better than I thought, particularly given the intense activity by the left to inhibit him in any way possible (they do say this) and the right often tepidly or not at all defending him. In my view, he’s doing much better than his predecessor, who I personally liked much better. In particular, I’m not that pleased with Trump’s Department of Justice, although I find I often do not like an attorney general either because I didn’t like their policies or because they were grossly incompetent (Gonzalez) or political (e.g., Meese, Holder).  That may be an effect of there being too many unfair laws. I am having difficulty accepting that Pruitt (EPA) should not be dismissed for ethical reasons, if even some of the things claimed about him are true and understand why so many are displeased with his policies so far (although not because of “global warming” which I’ve always been agnostic about). I have some difficulty with Betty Devos, though I have liked some rule changes, they had little to do with actual education, but, education is such a difficult task, they are going to be failures until we change a lot of things we do in educating children. And I don't understand the trade balance logic. We seemed to have done really well trading in this world. The whole world banking system is ours, which gives us a tremendous advantage. While I admit there is a lot I don't know about it, I'm having trouble appreciating the effort on such a world-wide basis. Is there a country which has unfair and unbalanced tariffs against us? Which one? I'm listening. And his positions on transsexuals in the military seem so antiquated and counter-productive, it is just an embarrassment. His own military has actively resisted his attempts and a court has at least temporarily stopped his attempt noting that all his reasons seemed to be completely contradicted by the military's studies. I don't know that the court should be able to do this, but they have.

I find it hard to acknowledge that there are some things Trump is doing well, because he so often comes across as idiotic and obnoxious. But I get over it because the “resistance” makes it easier by being over the top on every aspect of his administration. I do like some of his foreign policy. For all his misstatements and outright falsehoods, even those are exaggerated and I like the plain speaking about North Korea and Iran. I think he’s being tough with both China and Russia, while doing what all presidents in my lifetimes have done – equivocated, because they are huge powers too and to some degree we need them more than many allies. I agree with his putting our embassy in Jerusalem. It’s long been the law. Why should this one country not have our embassy where it wants it. Though it has unsettled the area, I do not think there will be war, and, as always, Palestinians will stop dying when Hamas decides it has had enough of them dying. That’s a horrible shame and waste and the people themselves have my sympathy, unless they are aligned with the wipe Israel off the face of the earth faction of the Middle East. Then again, I have no sympathy for many right-wing Israelis who want to remove all Palestinians from the territories or build more settlements in them.

I liked his policies with ISIS, which Obama blew (this post isn’t about Obama but his Middle East policies were destructive for everyone). That was a policy decision that cost a lot of lives and I feel it is a major Trump victory, simply because he took handcuffs off the generals.  I like his policies with MS-13, and though leaving aside that all humans are animals, to suggest that by calling them animals he literally means that they are not human, is so idiotic as to be beneath long discussion. Nancy Pelosi made herself into even more of a cloying kowtower of the first order because her state is largely Hispanic, by her false piety over it.  If you don’t understand he means they are humans who act worse than actual man-killing beasts, I can’t help you. I don’t care if they’ve had tough lives. When you pick up a machete to prey on other people you deserve far worse than name calling and lose all sympathy from me. 

His deregulation program seems, on the whole, to be going well and there are many industries happy for it. Maybe they've made mistakes. But, on the whole, he’s trying to make things work better. I read the other day that he’s made it easier to fire federal employees. It’s about time someone did that. I read he pardoned, posthumously, Jack Johnson. It’s about time, even if not important. And he’s pardoned others. As with all presidents, some pardons I will like and some not. The economy is doing well, and growing at a faster rate than during Obama’s terms. Yes, it started growing then, but it was like molasses, and that was due, in my opinion, not just to cycles, but because business knew Obama wasn’t their friend and Trump is.

So, yes, I might find it hard to acknowledge Trump’s successes because he is so unlikeable to me and I spent years stating that he is the worst thing to ever happen to the Republican Party. He can be a stupid, bullying, name-calling, undignified, egotistical jack ass - a caricature out of Dickens of the pompous rich man. He’s an embarrassment. But, it doesn’t mean he is doing a bad job either, at least relatively speaking. If you tell me that Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren is going to be his opponent in 2020, I still don’t think I can vote for him, but I might hope he wins, because for all his faults, anyone who is part of the “resistance,” would be far worse than him, even if, like Obama, I like them personally much more (Sanders, yes, Warren, no). If I started writing in depth about the hysteria and insanity of the resistance, this would be many pages longer. All I need say is that one article about a woman claiming she couldn’t have a relationship while he was president was the first of many similar expressions of angst that are somewhat comical and somewhat pitiful. Or the explanation a Trump hater gave me a few days ago about the way he knew something unrelated to Trump of which he had no evidence – it was, he said, the same way he can know there was collusion with the Russians. In fact, just yesterday, another very rational person I know most of my life told me that if Mueller doesn't find evidence of it, then he is just wrong, because it has to be the case. I've heard the same explanations for supernatural behavior. It is just so.

Our biggest problems are not Trump - they are the mutual antipathy and uselessness of our two main parties and their respective ideologies, which not only who gave us the two worst candidates in our history, but who can't get along well enough to do anything actually good for us, like immigration (they could only agree to spend even more money).

Trump's opponents seem to have had no similar anger at Pres. Obama or Kerry, who did make a bad deal with Iran, helped destroy Libya, essentially our ally - maybe for generations, backed off the redline with Assad for a deal he clearly didn't keep, pretty much abandoned Iraq and Afghanistan, watched the growth of ISIS, lied to us about both Syria and Iran, supported Morsi in Egypt, and left office with our enemies stronger. It's not all their fault, but a lot was.

I've never been a Trump supporter. We should have leaders like Kasich or Webb - moderates, but who are therefore reviled by their own parties. But, he's the president and with Congress almost always absent, he's in charge of foreign policy. Not Kerry. Not the resistance. For all his faults, better him than them.

In any event, the legendary commenter on this blog, Bear (which is only funny if you realize how few commenters there are on this blog), has predicted to me that Biden will be his opponent. He doesn’t blog anymore, so I will post his prediction for him.  I would be aghast at a return to Obama’s policies and I don’t know how I would feel about Biden. He does say some of the most unintentionally funny things of any politician since Dan Quayle.

I am hopeful the Russian investigation, the biggest waste of time since Whitewater, goes down in flames. If we had heard a single fact indicating it existed, I’d feel differently. I was against the special counsel when it was aimed at Clinton for no other purpose than to unseat him and I'm opposed to it now. It shouldn't matter who the target is, or which party is pressing it, or what the "scandals" are if it is a prosecution in search of a crime. It doesn't matter that Congress passed a law authorizing it or that Mueller has a good reputation (we now know that almost his entire staff is Democrat). These witch hunts, and that's what they are, are so destructive to our way of life and government, far more than any president can be.

It’s going to be embarrassing if McCain lives.

As is well known, McCain has brain cancer and is expected to die. He released a book recently, but has been very silent and not in Washington D.C. at all. Many of his friends, including political opponents have made a trek to see him. Some of them are quite emotional about it, including the often phlegmatic, McConnell, giving one the idea they know they are saying good-bye. So, although I’m sure everyone (maybe except Trump??) would be happier if he lived, in some ways it would kind of make welcoming him back a little awkward. Like a miracle recovery after someone’s loved one’s have decided to “pull the plug.” And, for those on the left, who have practically adopted McCain as the successor to Ted Kennedy, that is only expediency, as he hates Trump as much or more than most of them, and the enemy of their enemy is their friend. For now. Were he to return, and resume his mostly conservative ways (he votes with the right far more than the left – though I’m sure the further right would doubt it – they’d have to take back some of the heapfuls of praise they give him and begin to loathe him again the way they did when he was running for president.

McCain had long been my favorite politician for three good reasons. First, to me he seemed unusually honest. Maybe for a person, but definitely for a politician. Second, he could be friends with his opponents, something sorely missing today. One of the many reasons I can’t stand John Kerry, is that when he ran for president, McCain had his friend’s back, saying there would be nothing to worry about if he won (although, I disagree). When McCain ran, Kerry politically stabbed him in the back. McCain just shook it off as – that’s politics. Third, he bucks his own party, which for me is a requirement of anyone who wants to be president. This is why he is called a RINO by many on his side. What they don’t like, I respect, even if I disagree with their decisions. I might disagree with many of his votes and I do think he was severely lacking in his economic knowledge, but I still thought he would have been a much better president than Obama. Then, again, right now I think Trump is a better president than Obama was, yet there’s a reason we keep hearing reports that people around him refer to him as an idiot.

She’s a danger to the country – please.

Why I can’t take criticism of new CIA director, Gina Haspel, seriously? Because the left has attacked almost every person he’s nominated for an important post, that’s why. They use every legal tactic they can to make it as difficult as possible for Trump to put together a team from the beginning. And, that’s fine, in one sense. The Senate make its own rules (which are often dumb rules) and either side can use them as they see fit. Just as the Republicans had a right to not even give a hearing to Obama’s last pick for Supreme Court, Merrick Garland, the Democrats have a right to use the rules to block Trump’s choices anyway they can, and the Republicans can ignore the “blue slips” trying to hold up judicial nominees (because that isn’t really a rule). But, it doesn’t mean I have to take any of it seriously when they whine about the other side. When you attack everyone (or, okay, almost everyone) the other side nominates, you lose credibility with me, if politicians as a group can be said to have any credibility to begin with.  Haspel is obviously a very competent person and apparently, highly respected by those who served with her. She’s been castigated for having been run a military base where enhanced interrogation took place and having supported destroying tapes showing the interrogation (she says to protect the CIA personnel). She says she would not allow it on her watch, even if ordered to, but also stopped short of throwing her associates under the bus as having been immoral. I personally liked the way she stood up to questioning.

In short, I get the Ds are going to try to stop most all of Trump’s selections. Don’t expect me to believe them or treat seriously the reasons why. The same, frankly, goes for Rs when a D is president, but, the Rs weren’t as tough on Obama. Just compare cabinet votes for Trump’s picks with those for Obama. Yes, they are often very partisan, but the Rs, as opposed as they were to Obama, were much more likely to vote for confirmation.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/01/31/us/politics/trump-cabinet-confirmation-votes.html?mtrref=undefined

Just as examples, Obama’s two selections for Secretary of State were both bĂȘte noires for the Rs. But, Clinton was approved 94-2 and Kerry 94-3. Imagine that today. Trumps two picks, not so good. Tillerson 56-43 and Pompeo 66-32. They got as many votes as they did because in the end, some Ds, more the old guard, were trying to respect the traditions, despite the bad blood, perhaps hoping that someday, things will not be as temperamental. There were some Obama appointments which were closer, that is, got less R votes. Loretta Lynch, for example. And it was the Rs that gave the hardest time to their fellow R, Chuck Hagel, for being an apostate in opposing Bush’s war (leading to Obama nominating him), 58-41. But, generally speaking, they were much easier on Obama’s nominees than Ds now are with Trump, Mattis (US) and Haley (U.N. Ambassador) being exceptions of the important posts, at least, no doubt Mattis for his apolitical reputation and perhaps Haley because she was willing to say negative things about her boss.

Haspel was confirmed, 54-45 (McCain not voting). 6 Ds, most up for re-election in Trump states, voted to confirm, and two R Trump haters, Rand Paul and Jeff Flake (who isn’t running again), voted against.

By the way, despite the fact that I support Haspel’s nomination, I am opposed to enhanced interrogation – agree its torture – except, at least hypothetically, in the most time sensitive critical situation; the ticking bomb situation, which, if it ever happens, is extremely, almost disappearingly small. At the time she is now being criticized for, it was technically legal. I’m glad the law changed and I think she is too. And, I have little doubt her opponents know it too. Had they real worries on the issues, Brennan, who actually authorized the destruction of the interrogation tapes, would not have been a CIA director before her – nominated by Obama and voted for by both Ds, 49-2, and Rs. The Republican, no better than the Ds when it comes to obstructionism when in the minority voted against him 13-31. But, at least some of them voted for him, mostly moderates like Flake, McCain, Graham and Murkowski. Back to the main point, when Ds don’t vote for Haspel on grounds which should have made them vote against Brennan too, how do you take their criticisms seriously.

Meeto!

No surprise, the metoo movement is a double-edged sword. I've heard too many horror stories from women, especially in college to think anything but that sexual assault has always been a huge problem. When metoo began I was happy to see that at least some things were coming out of the closet and a stigma was being replaced with outrage, women singing out and getting help.

I'm still glad for that part of it, but we have a tendency in our society to protect victims by punishing everyone. It took two seconds for metoo to shoot past good into bad as it sought not just to right wrongs but to demonize normal behavior, and then to further demonize those who say - wait, too far. Cowardly and selfish schools and corporations, terrified of litigation, don't help. Neither does the refusal of people to that acknowledge good parenting matters.

Like others - I'm glad I'm not young and single today, b/c at the same time as this necessary change is happening, normal flirtation and relationships are too often being sacrificed on an altar of political correctness. Mild offensiveness is being treated as assault. I do not believe the great majority of young men do not assault and harass others and they shouldn't be assumed to do so. And many young women have been and should be taught to say "no" and to be careful. But they should not be taught that work or school, where people can get to know each other in a genuine environment, should be a robotic and cold either. I see that happening in our younger culture and the demonization of those who do not accept it, both young and old. Everything needs balance.

Perhaps the overkill is just human nature, the way societies, or at least our society, deal with cultural change. That doesn’t mean it should be accepted. We see it not just in the sexual or gender arena but also in the race and ethnicity arenas. And they are arenas, where battles are taking place.
This is my theory. When a group of people who identify with each other, like women, blacks, Hispanics, LGBT(etc.), that has a history of being oppressed find themselves no longer oppressed (or almost), they do not want parity; they do not see parity. They want revenge. They want power. They want others to suffer the indignities they suffered (or at least their predecessors).

What would make a perfect world? If the essence of the meeto movement, the outing of sexual abusers in the work and other places continued and if the overkill, treating so-called offensive remarks, flirtation or consensual sex as harassment – subsided. I wouldn’t count on it. Not with Miss America ending the bathing suit contest (I wouldn’t watch either way) and at least one international fashion show doing away with models. It seems like it is getting worse, and though there are probably few supporters, people don’t like to publicly say so because then they face ostracism and the power of social media, if not worse.  

All the energy is usually on the side of people who want to change things, not on the side of those saying – leave it be. Several countries in Europe already have laws which seem to put the burden of proof of consent to sex or that a reasonable person would believe so, on the defendant. I can only read the one law in English, Sections 75 and 76 of Great Britain’s Sexual Offense Act of 2003, which are easy to find online if you want to read them. That might be unconstitutional here, as we have a right to remain silent, but politicians don’t really worry about constitutional problems (sometimes judge’s don’t either) and the energy is on making it tougher on men to deny claims of rape. If you believe women never lie about rape, well, then it’s a great thing. We’ve already seen it in America on college campuses where many schools have decided to demand affirmative consent for sexual interactions. California, often the leader in legal craziness, passed a law a few years ago which would withhold funding (therefore, death of the college) if the school didn’t agree to pass various laws, most of which really aren’t bad, in fact are good. But, the provision concerning consent states:

“(2) A policy that, in the evaluation of complaints in any disciplinary process, it shall not be a valid excuse to alleged lack of affirmative consent that the accused believed that the complainant consented to the sexual activity under either of the following circumstances:
(A) The accused’s belief in affirmative consent arose from the intoxication or recklessness of the accused.
(B) The accused did not take reasonable steps, in the circumstances known to the accused at the time, to ascertain whether the complainant affirmatively consented.”

I would have no problem with (A), that is, you can’t say I was drunk or reckless, so I didn’t realize she was screaming stop (or say, passed out, crying, etc.). But, B is really difficult to understand. What are reasonable steps to ascertain whether someone affirmatively consents? I’d like to think someone kissing me was consent or taking off her clothes – but is it under this law? We just watched the actor, Aziz Ansari, who acted like a perfect gentleman with a women, get excoriated for having consensual sex and actually stopping when she finally told him she wanted to, It sounded like he was really nice to her. Not good enough, she said. Apparently, he had to read her mind. So, I couldn’t tell you what is considered reasonable anymore. And what is affirmative consent? Do we want young women to have to say “_ _ _ me?” I promise not to give tmi, but I know very few times in my life was I given a verbal go to it. It was almost all body language and innuendo. And, yes, there are some women (I’m sure men too) that like the feeling of resisting a little, or putting up a show of it. It’s a courtship and maybe a bit of a dance. I know it’s so because enough women have they told me they felt this way. Perhaps they are new stigmatized group. Again, no tmi, but a couple of women I knew wanted to put up more resistance and have more of a say, combat, than I was comfortable with, but not to stop. Again, I know, because they told me. In today’s world, had I any renkown (still your laughter), I’m sure I would be excoriated for saying the above – though most of us know it is true, in general. I’m also sure that no one has ever accused me of rape or sexual abuse, unless you count the young women in college who held my hand and the next day read me the riot act because she had a boyfriend. Our other friend, who was holding my other hand at the same time (this is really an embarrassingly innocent story) told me that the other friend just felt guilty after the fact and that she had liked it. Honestly, I know me. I just didn’t grab their hands either. Go figure. I’m a predatory hand holder and maybe today I’d get in trouble.

California makes the standard not reasonable doubt, as it would be for criminal matters, but the preponderance of the evidence, in other words, more likely than not. So, all it would mean was that if the female student said it happened, and there wasn’t a tape or someone present, the accused student was screwed – particularly if there was a criminal proceeding scheduled and he couldn’t testify.
The Obama administration tried to make that the law nationwide, making it a condition of receiving funding, but Trump’s Education Department pulled it back partially, giving states the option of making the standard clear and convincing, instead, which is somewhere between preponderance of the evidence and beyond a reasonable doubt. Imagine – they gave them a choice.
You might think I’m just taking the side of men, and it is, of course, possible that I am biased. But, I sure think I take rape and other sexual assaults very seriously and think punishments should be severe on a conviction. Yes, it is hard to prove because there aren’t likely any witnesses. That’s true of many crimes. And some states have decided the lower standard is better. But, we do not lower the standard for murder and we shouldn’t lower it for any or serious matter. Getting thrown out of college is really serious, possibly worse than someone who is convicted of a crime but does no time.

I also have trouble with any college claiming they are simply trying to protect women by making it easier to throw a man out of school, that doesn’t first ban alcohol and doesn’t have reasonable security in dorms and on campus parties (which would be a lot more than was wanted by the great majority of people who are neither assaulting anyone or being assaulted). If colleges really want to protect people, men and women, they could do it.  And, I hate that parents don’t educate their female students to be careful who they are alone with. I sure did and taught my daughter what to do if attacked. It didn’t mean she would be completely safe, but I think it made her a safer. Some people think that it is blaming the victim to say the above. I believe it is stupid not to teach it to our kids. Idiotic, in fact. And though my own thinking was based on common sense and anecdotal evidence – what women told me, it seems pretty clear that alcohol is one of the main problems, either as a cause or facilitator, or both:

“Data from a 2007 study for the National Institute of Justice on drug-facilitated, incapacitated and forcible rape indicate that only a small fraction (0.6 percent) of female undergraduate students who were sexually assaulted when they were incapacitated were certain they had been victims of drug-facilitated sexual assault.
Another 1.7 percent suspected they were incapacitated after having been given a drug without their knowledge.
That same study, however, indicated that the vast majority of incapacitated sexual assault victims (89 percent) reported drinking alcohol and being drunk (82 percent) before their victimization.”

Of course, the reason that schools don’t ban alcohol – they want people to go there. Oh, well. We can just cast blame and leave it at that. Why try and fix it? Well, if you don’t want to prioritize banning alcohol, accept that you will have more sexual assaults than you would without the change – probably a lot more.

The triangle of culture death: oversensitivity, lack of sense of humor and self-victimization, apologies and all that other stuff.

Maybe I’m just getting older, but it seems every day that there is a new story about someone’s feeling being hurt and the demand for someone to be fired, and it is just discouraging. What’s wrong with people? Grow up. “Sticks and stones can break my bones, but names can never hurt me.” Remember that one? Maybe not.

What was it a couple of weeks ago that Kelly Sadler, who worked in the WH, joked in a meeting that John McCain was tying, so no worries about him. From the reaction in the media, you’d think she actually talked about assassinating him. Eventually, about a month later, she is fired or asked to resign (although the WH claims it was unrelated). John McCain, who liked to jokingly call his friends “jerks,” joked about bombing Iran to a Beach Boys tune and had a ferocious temper. Please. And not long before that the WH was up in arms about someone at a meeting insulting Trump, although insults and apologies are flying so fast and furiously, I forget who and can’t even find it online. In any event - Please!!!! Our insulter-in-Chief himself. Honestly, I doubt that McCain or the president, both of who have been insulted a lot, including by people they considered friends, were really hurt by these minor league comments.

I don’t know – people insult me all the time. Probably 99% of them are friends, including, especially, my evalovin’ gf. I can’t think of a time I haven’t gotten over it, even when it was deliberate or pernicious. I remember once close friends (not readers) saying so many things about me, repeated to me by so many people, that I finally got angry and started going over and over again in my head for about two hours. And, then, when I realized I was obsessing, I got over it. I said something about it to one of them, but in a gentle way. It didn’t make much difference. The reason I got over it is because I realized, it was not so much about me, as about them. I was just the target for their insecurities. And, if I wanted to get mad, that would be understandable and fine. But, in the end, we could probably find a reason to get mad at and end our relationships with almost everyone we know, including our family. I remember recently saying to a close friend, “It’s okay. You can think I’m a racist. I already know you do and I kind of think you are too for different reasons.” It didn’t mean we couldn’t be friends for either of us.     

I’m not saying I don’t have sensitivities. I ignore most insults and (quasi-insults where it is a misstatement of fact that is demeaning). If you insult my integrity (honesty, general concern for other people, things like that), sure, I will be offended. There are other things too, but that is probably the most important. In any case, I probably will still be your friend if you did, and it is unlikely I will yell at you. More likely, I will defend the proposition, if I disagree, and tell you, you can think what you, or the like.

Two insults are now getting a lot of attention. Both were personal and insulting. I’d be angry if they were directed at someone I knew. One is Roseanne, a comedian, comparing Valerie Jarret to the offspring of an ape (no one seems concerned she suggested she was parented by an Islamic fundamentalist group member. As VJ is black, there is no way in the world that RB did not know how insulting comparing her to an ape would be. Samantha Bee, also a comedian, called Ivanka Trump a “feckless [C word – can’t bring myself to write it, but I know men and women who do so with abandon]. Feckless is insulting, but I’m not sure most people know what it means, and it is just not a trigger word. Trigger word’s are not rational, they are emotional, but it generally involves someone implying a person or group is less than human than comparing them to something generally considered disgusting and/or sexual or committed some indecent or criminal act.

There seems general agreement among people that both went beyond even the extended range we give comedians to say what they want, especially if they aren’t generally apologetic about it. There are some partisans who argue otherwise. I was just watching Meet the Press and a couple of panelists argued that Bee’s “C word” wasn’t as bad as Barr’s racial comment. A number of people have even defended the use of the “C word,” who I doubt would have been okay with it if they or their families were called it. That’s funny, because you can say “ape” on tv but you can’t even say the “C word,” even if not addressed to anyone in particular. I have to give some credit to the conservative partisans on this one. At least I haven’t heard any of them claim the opposite, that Bee’s were worse, though maybe there are some. And, Barr got fired immediately by her network, whereas Bee isn’t fired and even got an award recently. Although, by the time I publish this, it may come to the same thing as Trump has demanded Bee be fired and a few advertisers have pulled their ads.

But, that’s a side point. My main one is that Barr shouldn’t have been fired either, never mind Bee. I’m not saying their bosses didn’t have the right to fire them. I just think it’s a bad idea that we are this sensitive and I despise corporations who pretend they really care for other than the bottom line. I don’t mind that VJ or IT are insulted and angry. But, people shouldn’t be insulted b/c they favor this or that side politically and that is most of it. Personal political insults made to politicians can be painful for the butt of the joke. They are terrible for civil discourse. They don’t help our society at all. But, Barr’s penalty, particularity as it affected not just her but all the people and families of the people who worked with her, was ridiculous. But, even if it were just her, the firing was overkill, worse than her insult. All VJ got was hurt feelings. Both Barr and Bee have admitted that they went too far, although the sincerity of both apologies can be questioned.

Isn’t that what should generally happen, or used to happen? Someone says something wrong then apologizes, even if grudgingly, or sort of apologizes that feelings were hurt, and we move on? Or they didn’t apologize, and most everyone eventually moved on anyway. 

As for me – I’m sick of it. I’m not saying I’ve never apologized in my life for something I shouldn’t have apologized for. A few times. Though I can remember doing it, and regretting it, I can’t remember the details. But I try not to do it anymore. I might explain what I said. I might even say
“I sorry if that is upsetting to you,” but it is not an apology. Nor do I want an apology that someone doesn’t mean directed at me. I hate it when parents tell their kids to apologize for things that the kid doesn’t feel bad about. I don’t want it.

And I want celebrities to stop. I liked that Donald Trump, obnoxious as he is, not apologizing when he didn’t mean it. Even if he was wrong, and sometimes he was idiotically wrong. If he didn’t mean it, what’s the point?

I hated it when Tiger Woods apologized for things that were no one’s business but his family’s in front of a press corp. who all undoubtedly had friends or other people they knew in their lives who committed adultery, if not themselves. I hated it when George Herbert Walker Bush apologized for complimenting Russian workers (in Russia) with a quip that indicated they were better than American workers. He was jokingggggggg. I hated it when Cam Newton, who was ignorant in commenting on women sports’ journalists, apologized, because you could see how enraged he was to have to do it. Stop apologizing when you don’t mean it.

LGBT 1 Bakery 0

Many people were horrified by the Supreme Court decision in what is known as the Bakery case. The name is Masterpiece Cakeshop, LLC v. Colorado Human Rights Commission. I wasn’t. I thought it was the right decision for the wrong reasons and given the Supreme Court make up right now, expected that the Cake shop would win.

But, I was surprised that the decision made actually gives the LGBT community a stunning victory and I’m not sure many people, focusing on the opinion overriding the Commission’s decision, realize it. So, I’ll tell you.

Here’s the skinny on the case, if you need it. At the relevant time, same sex marriage was not legal in Colorado, where the events took place. Masterpiece Cakeshop, LLC. is owned by baker named Jack Phillips. Nobody seems to doubt that he is very artistic in his work. It’s all over his shop and brochures. A gay couple inquired whether he would make a cake for their wedding. He would not. He claims he offered them anything they wanted off the shelf and bake them goods for other celebrations, but his religious values would not allow him participate in a same sex wedding no matter who asked. They claim he did not. It doesn’t seem to matter much as Masterpiece took the position that he would have had to do so. He was not saying that he was allowed to refuse to serve LGBT. He was only arguing that he did not have to express himself by making a cake for a religious ceremony that was against his religious beliefs. Remember, at that time, Colorado had an anti-discrimination law in favor of gays, but gay marriage itself was not legal.

A complaint was made to the Colorado Human Rights Commission. Masterpiece’s argument was likened by the commission to those used to defend slavery or the holocaust. They found against the cake shop, fined him heavily and put onerous requirements on it, such as giving diversity training to its staff. Appeals ensued. Colorado’s high court found in the commission’s favor.
I listened to the oral argument. I thought it was off the mark. It was all about religious belief, hypotheticals and who was an artist such that his business required expression and was protected by the first amendment.

In writing the opinion for the case, Justice Kennedy made it clear that he was not deciding that cake makers or vendors or artists had a right to violate anti-discrimination laws because of their religious beliefs. On the other hand, the statements made by the commissioners showed a hostility to religion which violated his religious beliefs. Thus, the court ruled in his favor, 7-2. Justice Kagan*, and Breyer joined the main opinion. Almost everyone on the court wrote an opinion. This is clearly a victory for the LGBT community. What HR commission, what state, is not listening and doesn’t now know to keep their mouths’ shut in these situations and instead to give some lip service appreciating religion or stating its importance. 

*The original post said "Justice Kagan, herself gay," etc. A friend who tried to comment (it doesn't always work for whatever reason) pointed out to me that she has not said so. I checked and am just wrong. Yes, it has been long rumored and she seems to fit the stereotypes, but obviously, that doesn't mean anything. If you put a gun to my head, I'd say yes, even though her friends have said no and she is silent as to it. Not that there's anything wrong with it (maybe some day we will be too far from Seinfeld for people to remember that's a line from that show). Anyway, apologies. I screwed up. 

If you disagree with my reading of Kennedy’s opinion, just read Kagan’s concurrence. She went along with the majority opinion because she agreed that the Commission was hostile to religion. She understood perfectly what had happened and made sure she stated it. She even told commissions what to say in future cases. Justice Gorsuch focused on another case the commission had. A William Jacks asked three bakers to make cakes derogating same-sex marriage. They refused. They had secular reasons that they found offensive. The commission in that case sided with the non-religious bakers and against the religious one simply because they agreed with the secular feelings of offense and not the religious one. I can’t deny that this seems to be the case, but I don’t think it is the best reason to rule for Masterpiece either. Justice Thomas concurred b/c he believed free speech was at issue. He gave an example of another case where despite a similar law, parade organizers were allowed to exclude some people from their parade, which was expressive, b/c the State could not forbid speech b/c some people found it offensive. It’s a good rule, probably the closest to my own opinion. Justice Ginsburg, not surprisingly, would be happier with an out and out victory for the commission, and Justice Sotomayor joined her. She did not see the hostility that the others did. I disagree with her, but, I understand her position and don’t think her dissent was crazy – just wrong, as they all were.

I didn’t see it as a religion or speech rights case. Just a basic freedom case that’s somehow based on the first amendment to the constitution. At most, a freedom of association (or not to associate) case. Here’s my view. It doesn’t matter that Phillips was an artist (I accept that he was). It doesn’t matter that he had “sincere” religious beliefs, which the court found him to have had. I actually hate that courts are now supposed to decide whether someone’s beliefs are sincere. It’s none of their business. Judge’s love to say “if the first amendment means anything. . . “ so I will. If the first amendment means anything, it means it is not the state’s business whether beliefs are sincere or not.
In any event, anyone, religious guy, atheist guy, jerk, good guy, etc., has the right to determine what he will participate in or not. Period. If someone, a gay, a straight, etc., should not be compelled, including by penalties, to participate in a traditional marriage or a same sex marriage. Or a parade or, for that matter, or government mandated health insurance. And, it doesn’t matter whether I agree with the baker or candlestick maker or not – or that a judge does. That’s the whole point of freedom.


And you have the freedom to stop reading this. I’ve gone on and on and on and on and . . . .

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Political update for November, 2017

There's a lot going on and only I, out of the six billion people on this planet, have something valuable to say about it. I’m sure you will agree after reading the following:

Stand, kneel, play patty cake – what do I care? Just don’t bore me.

The whole NFL anthem thing is almost played out – and pretty much where I wanted to be in the first place. That’s good, because for once the NFL, whose games I love to watch, but whose organization I’ve come to have little respect for, got it right for a change. But, let's start at the beginning.

Kaepernick - So, Kaep was a decent quarterback in this league who had a lot of potential, but during his last two years the 49ers were a poor team and he showed no improvement. Statistically, he’s right about the same place as he had been, but the teams not winning and efforts to improve his game (including with mentoring from Hall of Famer Kurt Warner) seemed not to help at all. Though he comes from a middle class family into which he was adopted, he may have been radicalized a little by a new girlfriend (that's the narrative and what it seems like, but I really don’t know - maybe he was leaning that way already), and it also seems that he is feeling some kind of youthful identity stress. I don’t know that he is acting with any more or less political savvy than other people. He’s 30 now. I probably felt a lot like he did in my early 20s - not a commie, but definitely a lefty. I grew out of it. 

I actually liked Kaepernick quite a bit for a while. Though I thought a lot of Alex Smith, who he replaced as starter (and who is a few years later having the year of his life), I wanted to see Kaep play.  He seemed like he had a fun loving personality and was absolutely a great athlete, if not ever an elite QB. I remember one play, probably in 2013, which endeared him to me personally. He had just run the ball and was forced out of bounds. A defensive player on the other team was jawing at him coming off the sidelines back to the field. Kaep smiled at him sweetly and just pointed to the scoreboard. Maybe he has changed. Like with entertainers, we only see their public persona and not necessarily the real person. He was fined for something he said on the field, not sure what, fined for wearing headphones the league didn’t endorse (that’s a knock on them, not him, in my book) and had a fight with a teammate who used to date his new girlfriend. Nothing horrible, but, you don’t see Eli Manning or Russell Wilson doing those type of things either, right?

Anyway, for whatever reason, in 2016 he started sitting out the anthem. He didn’t make a big deal about it until asked why during an interview. Naturally, there was a reaction, but, though I have trouble with his statements that black people are oppressed (not that there isn't prejudice on both sides) or that cops are quicker to shoot them than other people, I could be wrong and they obviously have a long history of oppression against them and many people still feel they are today. On the other hand, even President Obama said it is a lot better now than ever. 

Actually, I don’t need to agree or disagree with him at all, or even know why he is sitting. I don’t care. As far as I’m concerned he could sit or kneel, as he did in the last game of the season, for any reason or no reason at all. I’m sure I’ve written here on one occasion at least that in high school I often lay down on the radiator during home room while the pledge of allegiance was recited, mostly out of exhaustion, but partly because I was never comfortable with public displays of patriotism, and when younger would sometimes not stand for the anthem for both of those reasons. I tend to stand in public these days during the anthem, because it upsets people more than I care, and I'm a little less exhausted, but there have been times I haven’t stood if I was in a back row.

In any event, some other players emulated him, and some much better athletes than him, including some on the Seattle Sea Hawks. This year it took off, especially when our whiz kid from Queens opened his bi-i-i-g-g mouth and said that players should be fired or benched – whatever. Then, the protest became something else. Whole teams linked arms in some kind of show of unity/protest and there were some black power salutes.

Now there was even more push back. Some people took Trump’s side, although I think he was idiotic about it, perhaps just trying to rally his base. I personally knew people who said they refused to watch the games while players were protesting. As many people pointed out, people are buying hot dogs and doing whatever they want during the anthem. Why can’t players do the same? What could be a more peaceful display of someone’s opinion than merely sitting or taking a knee? Some people seem to think is more respectful to the armed forces (I have no idea why they are part of the discussion – are they why we have the anthem? If so, I sure didn’t know that).

The NFL definitely has its eye on the bottom line. It is the reason for most of their stupid decisions although, they are a business and it is hard to blame them for trying. I don’t know if they are handling it right. There tv numbers – the reason for all that big money – that have been dwindling. But, that is also true of cable tv and sports in general, or so I read. The powers that be in the NFL, mostly my nemesis, Goodell, decided they’d better do something about the bad publicity from the protests. But, at the same time, being that the large majority of their players are black, they needed to tread lightly. Jerry Jones, the owner of the Cowboys, told his team whoever protests doesn’t play and it looked like the NFL was going to follow suite. But they didn’t. Goodell, in an NFL network interview, made it clear there were no policy changes and they wanted to talk to players about social justice. So, they had a meeting. It looked like they were even going to have Kaepernick, but then they didn’t.

What took place at the meeting, I can’t say. I guess there was “dialogue.” About what, I don’t know. It’s not like anyone is accusing the NFL, one the most minority dominated big businesses in the country, of oppressing blacks. I don’t know who they are accusing of oppressing them. Is it still about cops? The NFL, which is suddenly responsible for racial justice in this country, as if they were a branch of the civil rights division in Washington, agreed at the meeting that it would have a month set aside for social justice. No idea what that will entail, probably public service messages and some promotions. Maybe those representing the players wanted a way out too.

 Now, it comes out one of the owners,  Houston's Robert McNair, made a comment about the inmates running the prison, or was it asylum? So, he had to apologize for using an expression. Because e v e r y t h i n g is about color now, I guess his expression – one that had no racial meaning I knew of - became all about race too. Yawn. So, his team was affronted because that means . . . ummm . . . the owner’s a racist? The millionaire players are oppressed?  

Me? Not enough to not watch the games, but I just wanted everyone to shut up about it. I don't think it does a thing for what the protests are intended to do (I still am not sure what) and I don't think it does a thing for the military or police to have it pushed to the side. It just makes me happier.

In the meantime, Kaepernick has sued the league on the grounds that there is a conspiracy not to hire him. That means owners had to get together to say – hey, lets not hire Kaep. That’s going to be hard to prove. I understand why they don’t want to hire him. For one thing, he started the whole thing. He had also worn socks with pigs wearing cop hats, which he claims he wore before he started sitting down and only represented rogue cops, and he wore a Che tee-shirt to some event or another. Che is a hero to rebels but to others a vicious murderer. Kaep now also sports an afro which we kind of associate with the ‘60s and “black power.” Some people may think that’s great, and maybe he’s a trend setter. But, others are going to be angry about it. Not because they are racist (although I’d bet some are), but because they hate racial divisiveness. Let’s face it – Che was and Kaep is divisive, and he’s not good enough to overcome it. There are other QBs not playing or second string who are better than he is -- but they aren’t divisive. There were and still are other guys protesting, but they were either really good, or great, or they were kneeling next to guys who were. If Kaep was good enough, he’d get hired too. Mediocre and divisive are a bad combination.

I’ve written before about what I think is going on in racial relations in America and I don’t want to go into it here. Why? Because I’m watching football. And there is nothing racist about football. Along with basketball, it is practically the antithesis of racism – unless you count reverse racism. The revolution is taking on almost ludicrous behaviors and opinions. Recently, the NAACP demanded that the national anthem be changed to remove a reference to slavery – not even an obnoxious reference, but one that simply acknowledges that there were slaves and indentured servants. I knew there was more than one stanza to the anthem, but I don’t know how many there are. I would expect that not one person in 10,000 knows that there is more than one, not one in a million knows how many and not one in ten million know the words. And what would it mean to change the words that are never sang or thought about by almost anyone in the country? Finding old books and burning them or just having some government official stating – we change these words and henceforth everyone pretend Francis Scott Key never wrote them.  I don’t get it. It would be like Jews demanding that people stop mentioning the holocaust or Americans that people stop writing novels about 9/11. You can’t change history. These things happened. We are better off knowing and thinking about them.

Also, recently, an NBA player suggested we stop calling owners "owners." "Chairman" would be better. Why you ask? Not that we have slavery, but apparently for him, using the word "owner" is some kind of holdover from slavery we should get past. Thanks to Mark Cuban for pointing out that the ownership involved is not of people, but shares of stock or a team.  

So, my preference – sit, stand, kneel, sing, don’t sing, I don’t care. It’s harmless, absolutely peaceful protest about something concerning race, but I’m no longer sure what. Maybe it just means for the protester - we are black and we still feel stigmatized or threatened or we are protesting for those who look more like us but don’t have million dollar salaries. It’s not that I don’t care about race relations or people’s feelings. I just don’t want to hear about it or see it while I’m trying to watch football. It would be like a football game breaking out in a super market while I'm trying to shop.

Weinstein, you knucklehead, you may be disgusting, you may be a criminal, but you may also have helped women get past a stigma of being sexually assaulted

It was exactly zero shock for people to read that there was an avalanche of women coming out of the shadows to accuse a film producer of sexual harassment. I’ve known since I’m a child that there was a casting couch and that many young actresses, maybe old ones too for all I knew, who felt they had to have sex with people in power to get good roles. Or put up with uncomfortable situations. And many times they were likely right.

Harvey Weinstein, is, undoubtedly, a pig. Yes, when this many women come out, I do believe them, at least most of them. He is probably, based on the accusations, a criminal, though he denies that part of it. It’s actually not fair that some of the commentary seems to focus on his looks. He’s not a good looking guy, but that shouldn’t be the issue.

What I’m glad to see mostly is that women who were before being quiet, because they felt they wouldn’t be believed, or that they’d be shamed, now feel they can speak up. But, if all it is, is a snowball related to Weinstein and a few other chosen people who were predatory, it is not enough.

Many, many years ago I heard something in summer camp that I still remember. I was somewhere between 8-10 and a camp counselor, probably in her young 20s - to me very grown up, was saying that she had to wear a blue dress for her wedding because she had been raped – she couldn’t wear the traditional white. I was outraged for her but thought she was crazy to think that way. Why should she be shamed or stigmatized because someone else did something horrible? Don’t ask me where I got this idea that intentions should matter a lot and that traditions that shamed, denigrated, stigmatized or denounced people over things that were not in their control and seemed to have no rational relationship between the fact and the reaction, were not good traditions, but I had it very young, still in my single digits. Maybe everyone does, but it never seemed like that to me. It seemed closer to the opposite. People seem to like those stigmas, sometimes even when they apply to themselves.

But, at the same time I felt outraged for her, I was also very impressed that she didn’t seem to be ashamed that she was raped and could speak about it. I was already aware that rape, like almost anything sexual or biological in those days (we didn't even discuss that women had menstrual cycles) was a hush-hush matter. And, again, maybe all or most young kids know that. I’m not sure where we learn it.

Somewhere along the road of life I started to say outloud that I thought that women would be better off if their names were not hidden in rape cases and that the should be very upfront about it if they were sexually abused. The idea of sexual harassment was only slowly developing.  Definitely by my 20s.  But, quickly I learned it wasn’t an appreciated position to take publicly. People immediately got mad – as usual when I said what I thought about anything emotionally charged – and often they changed what I was saying into something different and definitely offensive, and claimed I was demeaning women, that I couldn't know what rape was like, and I shouldn’t have anything to say about it. Usually, if I have an opinion that was different than most people, I’d know that at least some people agreed with me, sometimes many people, but that being less awkward and more social than I was, were uncomfortable saying it in public (e.g., there are a lot more atheists/agnostics than admitted it publicly). But, with this opinion, I seemed to be completely on my own. Honestly, it didn’t come up a lot, but that was my impression.

Jump ahead to 1991 and the William Kennedy Smith rape case. There’s a lot that can be said about that case – there have been books about it – but I just am focusing on the fact that Ms. Bowman, the alleged victim was publicly outed, rather than being hid and the crime being prosecuted against an anonymous person. Though I tended to believe Kennedy in the scenario described, having heard the testimony, I was glad to see it was being brought out of the shadows for the defendant's sake, but also for hers, even if she protested.*


*Just as an aside, though people associate his name with the rape case too, few people are aware that subsequent to the trial, he received his M.D. and went on to a storied career as a humanitarian dealing with land mines and innovative ways to help poor countries with medical issues. No, you idiots, I’m not saying if he was a rapist his career gives him absolution (I’m actually sorry to have to say this, but I too frequently get reminded how people argue), I’m just saying that he was not just the party boy he was portrayed to be. I’ve read that he was accused as late as 2004 of sexual assault, which he denied, pointing out that he was very susceptible to accusations (a good point whether he’s a rapist or not). I don’t know what’s true. I’m just noting that anyone would be proud to have his humanitarian record. Both could be true.  

Still, I did not see much evidence that women were being taught not to be ashamed to be victims. I get the problem still. They did not want to be the subject of hostility from ogres, and there are plenty of them, have their sex lives dragged out in public, maybe have their careers and life affected, have people whisper when they came into a room, etc. Nor have that general horrible feeling of having someone else exercise their will over them (presuming they are telling the truth). And I’m not saying I would feel or act differently, because I am subject to the same cultural training as they are. I am saying that we should get past it, and that case was a small step.

But, now, maybe, things are changing a little bit. Obviously, as time goes by we see more women, and sometimes men, willing to come out and say that they were abused. There’s courage in numbers, clearly. Although it seems there is a lot going on, there’s no way to know if this outing stuff will trickle down to those who can’t get in the media spotlight because the accused aren’t famous. I don’t know if it will empower people at work or other places at all. We’ll see, I guess. And, I’m also not suggesting that some of the accusations are false. It is just as dangerous to suggest that women don’t lie about rape or assault as to take the man’s side by rote.

I will only touch upon one more point about it. We have a tendency in this country to throw the baby out with the bath water when we have cultural change. While it is important - incredibly important - that women not be sexually assaulted or harassed at work, and I welcome this Weinstein generated movement in general, we do not want to create a situation where the work place becomes a sexual bonfire of the vanities - where every social interraction between male and female workers is made non-sexual and castigated as evil. Because that is what we have been teaching our young people. Love and sexuality exists even at work. You can't cut it out of you by force or law. Many relationships, I don't know if still most, are created there. It is one of the few places you can get to know people well in a natural environment and we are way to hung up about sex in general. Mild flirtation, dating, even sex does not have to be evil or wrong in the work environment. Probably little of it is. Just today I read of a journalist at CNN saying that she gave a man permission to say her dress look pretty. Now, that's insane.

Trump

               While he was running I said that if he won, he’d be a terrible president but it would be very entertaining. It is. Partly because he’s such a moron (of course, Tillerson said that, whatever his denials – I don’t know that for a fact, but I believe it – I call a lot of people a moron at some point; it’s a common character assessment for even minor mistakes and Trump makes major ones repeatedly) and partly because of the resistance, which I’ve written on here before, is in a state of hysteria* and keeps his presidency aflame too.

*I’ve been a little conscious of the usual partisan fear and hatred for the opposition since Nixon and very much so since Reagan – when I joined in, being then very liberal. The reaction to Bush II was a large uptick in animosity towards the opposition president, possibly because the election was so close; Obama possibly more so, because of the attempt and partial success in changing our government, but at least the same amount; but the white hot “hysteria” regarding Trump is a giant leap back to uglier times in American history. Part of that is Trump’s fault, as he was the most insulting, degrading and flagrantly dishonest campaigner we’ve seen in modern times. Pay back is a bitch, as they say. It makes it very difficult for him to govern now at all, as even many in his own party intensely dislike him or don’t mind watching him flail. I have my own friends and family members who literally can’t bear any disagreement about him. One friend, who invited me over, started talking about him and literally became hysterical when I agreed on A,B and C insults, but not about D, and said heatedly he was going upstairs if I kept talking about him. The other day a relative started every sentence with how fair he was to Trump and then would become white hot with rage by the end of the sentence and called him a “Nazi.” Those are just my own experiences, but I see this all the time with Trump, mainly in op-eds criticizing him. Unfortunately, his supporters rarely match the emotion in defending him because it is so hard to defend someone who constantly shoots himself in the foot.

Anyone could justify doing their entire political review on Trump. He is almost the only subject and not just about politics. His adversaries make almost everything about him. Too much is written about him for me to want to do wander endlessly about him though. I’m just going to sum up some issues.

I still don’t see the Trump-Russian connection. Though some of his opposition says – but there are already indictments and a conviction – no there aren’t, not about his campaign's supposed collusion with Russia (which, as has been pointed out ad nauseam, isn’t a crime, unless it’s connected to a real crime). Neither Manafort nor his partner are accused of “collusion” crimes. Even Flynn, who had not yet been indicted will not likely be indicted for that. And Papadopoulos pled to lying to the FBI, which does not even rise to the level of perjury and is just a blunt tool to force people to say what the FBI wants it to say. Which makes any testimony he may have about collusion tainted.  None of the above were or will be accused, as far as we know now, of any collusion, however their adversaries might choose to phrase it. So far, every revelation about a discussion or possibility of some minor league collusion, seems to show that there was none (not that there couldn’t be - I'm just not sure I'd think there was anything wrong with it).

Trump’s main problem is not the “resistance.” Had he the support of all Republicans in congress, he’d be able to sweep most of it aside. But, many of them give him tepid support and some, like McCain, Corker and Flake have just plain come out against him. Even the independent counsel is a product of Republican dislike for him, as they are the majority and could have limited the scope of the investigation or not had it at all (although it is largely Sessions' fault).  Not that I have a problem with the investigation of Russian interference with the election or into Trump’s business conflicts. Both are legitimate topics. But, the craze over collusion so far looks delusional. Show me a fact, I’ll change my mind.

When I first assessed Trump in June of this year, I wrote that the following was dead in the water –  the stupid wall; banning Muslims from America except for new standards for vetting asylum seekers in general; self or forced deportation of millions of illegal aliens and an independent counsel to investigate the Clinton emails.

In a comment Bear took me to task, suggesting it was already happening. I still disagree. So far, though he keeps trying – I think to make it look good for his base – congress has shown no interest in the stupid wall. Despite the hysteria over his orders, which affected citizens from seven, then six predominantly Muslim countries, there has never been an order banning Muslims and isn’t going to be.*  The WH has already announced there will be no mass deportations and the only thing he has done is not renew an illegal DAPA (I didn’t say it – a court did) and tried to bolster the border patrol – crossings are way down and even his opposition has a hard time saying that we should not have a border (although, I do know there are some who feel that way). Last, right away it was announced that the email investigation was over, though I'm sure some Republicans would like to have it re-investigated. We’d need some dramatic new revelation to change that.

*Some people will argue that these are, in fact, Muslim bans and that even he has called it that and insisted that this is what it his orders really were. Well, as I said, he can be an moron. The orders specifically forbid discriminating by religion, although they are almost entirely Muslim countries. But, can anyone deny that these few countries do have a significant population which might pose a threat to us and do not have control of their own immigration or borders. In addition, we are not also so bound to them politically or otherwise so that a ban would destroy the relationship (e.g., Saudi Arabia). In any event, the entire population of these countries is well below 10% of the Muslims in the world. The latest so-called “ban,” was a proclamation which was also stayed by Hawaiian and Maryland district courts. Supposedly they will be appealed, but it is possible they will be ignored. I have to admit, though I think these orders mostly unnecessary, I am disturbed that under our constitutional system a district court (the lowest federal court) can stop the president from acting in what he believes is a national security matter in what I believe is a political way by lower courts. It gives a judge in the other party the opportunity to control what is legitimately presidential power.  Imagine if nationwide orders of Exxon’s or Microsoft’s CEO could be stopped by a local production manager. This power was essentially usurped by the court system long ago (Obama had the media support to just ignore such orders when he wanted to) and I guess people like it.

But, despite all the negativity from the press towards Trump, despite the fierceness of his opposition and the distraction of the Russia investigation, he has what would certainly be considered successes for other presidents in that their supporters liked them (let’s not forget Obama got a Nobel Prize just for being elected). The economy is growing faster than it has in years, consumer confidence is up, as I said – illegal border crossings are down and the border administration doesn’t feel like they are the enemy, the rules of engagement for our armed forces has been made more reasonable, ISIS as a political and military force is being reduced rapidly, Russia has stopped pestering planes with theirs (I think since February, shortly after the inauguration) and Iran our ships since July when we fired warning shots at them. I think they get the message that there is a new sheriff in town - even if he sometimes acts like an idiot, who does not feel that humility is a virtue in foreign affairs. The stock market is at an all-time high (although, we should always be nervous about bullish markets). New jobs are way up and unemployment way down. New regulations have come to a stand-still and are being reduced, manufacturing and housing are up. NATO has responded to his call for a greater anti-terrorism focus. I could go on, but if you want to say those are talking points, they are. I took them from various lists so I wouldn’t have to think hard. Still, doesn’t mean they aren’t real. You will not see these arguments in most of the mainstream media though. You have to read online. Yes, you can absolutely argue that some, many or all of these things are actually bad for us (although some it would be hard to do so) or that he has little to do with him (again, some, you really can’t). I’m not judging here. Some things he does I like, more things I don’t. I’m just saying that other presidents would be given “credit” for them.

Love him, hate him. I know good people who feel both ways. We will be lucky if this is the narrative that we have for the next 4-8 years because it will mean nothing horrible has happened.

               The future is easy to predict until you get there. I love to predict elections, even who is going to run, and sometimes I do it well, sometimes abominably. I really don’t think I’m any better or worse at it than anyone else. It is human nature to think when you are right it was because of some good qualities in you – logic, knowledge, intelligence, etc. And when you are wrong, it is because something unforeseeable got in the way. Even if we realize that this isn’t the case, we still feel that it is true anyway.  

               During the Obama years, I wrote about 8 of 10 installments of why he was the worst president in my lifetime. Even worse than his predecessor. Never finished it. Trump may surpass him too. I’m not sure yet because Trump hasn’t had a chance to do much. The other day - election day -the normal trend occurred, where the Democrats gained seats in the house during election following the presidential election. We don’t know if it is going to get worse next year when Senate seats are up for grabs. But, not unlikely. Trump can do nothing with a majority, I doubt he will do more with less of one. And maybe this is what is best, no party with complete control to wreak havoc on the idiots who elected them.

               Nevertheless, I am going to start making election predictions for 2020 sooner than later, probably around the end of 2018, could be early 2019, which isn’t all that far away.  If you wait until there’s a clear front runner, or just follow the polls, you aren't predicting much. The two main questions I’m asking myself now are no different than what many other people are wondering – will the Democrats continue what they’ve been doing and double down on the leftwards trend and nominate a Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Sanders type, and, two, will Trump run again. Right now, I’d bet a little both things will be so, but I don’t feel a whole lot of conviction about it (actually, probably rarely do about these things).

               In the meantime, enjoy or withstand the roller coaster, if you can.

About Me

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I started this blog in September, 2006. Mostly, it is where I can talk about things that interest me, which I otherwise don't get to do all that much, about some remarkable people who should not be forgotten, philosophy and theories (like Don Foster's on who wrote A Visit From St. Nicholas and my own on whether Santa is mostly derived from a Norse god) and analysis of issues that concern me. Often it is about books. I try to quote accurately and to say when I am paraphrasing (more and more). Sometimes I blow the first name of even very famous people, often entertainers. I'm much better at history, but once in a while I see I have written something I later learned was not true. Sometimes I fix them, sometimes not. My worst mistake was writing that Beethoven went blind, when he actually went deaf. Feel free to point out an error. I either leave in the mistake, or, if I clean it up, the comment pointing it out. From time to time I do clean up grammar in old posts as, over time I have become more conventional in my grammar, and I very often write these when I am falling asleep and just make dumb mistakes. It be nice to have an editor, but . . . .