Monday, November 01, 2010

Eve of election predictions

Just for fun, last minute predictions.

Republicans picks up 62 seats in the house, gaining majority with 240 seats. There is no filibuster in the house so this gives them control. They only need 40.

Democrats maintain the senate - D-50  R-48  I-2 (R's pick-up 13; the 2 independents already caucus with Democrats, so they actually would have 52-38 in that scenario).

If I'm wrong, then max 50-50 in senate, including two independents, which still gives the Democrats the advantage in straight up votes due to having the VP (Biden) on their side, but they will have an agreement regarding the split in committees as they have done before.

If Republicans pick up the house, expect jubilation and mockery reminiscent of jubilation in '08 among Democrats.

My recommendation to the Republicans: Show humility and affirm your commitment to responsible government. It is not a mandate at all. It is a repudiation of two much power by anyone, same as it was in 2008 (or, as P. J. O'Rourke wrote - it's a restraining order).  Tea partiers, remember why you are there or you might be thrown out in 2 years. If you try and start a social revolution, you will be rejected by all but your base and you will not get very far anyway.

My recommendation to the Democrats: Accept defeat with grace. You still have a shot at 2012, because despite his plummeting numbers - he's the president - what do you expect?  The surest way to increase his chances is for the Republicans to go after him personally and for him to handle it well. He still beats every known Republican in head on head polling.

Reasoning for recommendations: Although they have no center and no direction en masse, independents now control the elections and you will not impress them (me) if you dance around like an NFLer who just scored a touchdown. Independents don't care about either side, but even we have visceral reactions to hubris. They want a stable economy and to be left alone as much as possible.

Notice to both parties: liberals and conservatives: It's still the economy, stupid.

Second notice to both parties, liberals and conservatives: You all deserve each other.


  1. dems hold senate 53 - 47, lose house, but barely, repubs pick up 42 seats.

  2. Well, for the senate we are only one apart (presume you are counting Sanders and Lieberman for the Dems), but we'll know pretty soon on the rest. Fascinating election. Love or hate the tea parties, they made it very interesting this year.


Your comments are welcome.

About Me

My photo
I started this blog in September, 2006. Mostly, it is where I can talk about things that interest me, which I otherwise don't get to do all that much, about some remarkable people who should not be forgotten, philosophy and theories (like Don Foster's on who wrote A Visit From St. Nicholas and my own on whether Santa is mostly derived from a Norse god) and analysis of issues that concern me. Often it is about books. I try to quote accurately and to say when I am paraphrasing (more and more). Sometimes I blow the first name of even very famous people, often entertainers. I'm much better at history, but once in a while I see I have written something I later learned was not true. Sometimes I fix them, sometimes not. My worst mistake was writing that Beethoven went blind, when he actually went deaf. Feel free to point out an error. I either leave in the mistake, or, if I clean it up, the comment pointing it out. From time to time I do clean up grammar in old posts as, over time I have become more conventional in my grammar, and I very often write these when I am falling asleep and just make dumb mistakes. It be nice to have an editor, but . . . .