I actually wrote a different post this week, one involving
tattoos. But, my inability to upload
photographs on blogger, though it is supposed to be really easy, got too
frustrating. I’ve even tried doing it on Word and then just pasting it on. I’ve
tried uploading it directly on blogger (even worse – it freezes Internet
Explorer), copying it directly from my pictures, but nothing works.
In any event, what’s wrong with just talking politics. There
are 5 big issues as I see them right now.
Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump and the Iran deal. But, we can only talk a
little about Trump and then, even if not as much in the news, talk about my
take on some other candidates and then the Middle East.
Trump
Trump is short for trumpet, I think, and he must think so
too. I’m not sure if outside of a pure entertainment situation have ever seen
anyone as shamelessly dedicated to trumpeting his own worth. I’ve lost track of
the things he will be the best at – I know the military and with Hispanic and
with women, but there were so many others. You could probably make a similar
list of people he has insulted and people he says he loves or they love him. I
know he loves the Mexicans, the Russians and the Chinese all of whom he has
insulted and complimented.
I stick with my original prediction. It might be that Trump
stands for almost every negative aspect of a politician and possibly a person
that I can think of – arrogant (“I’m very rich”), conceited (“super-genius”), a
control-freak, a liar, bigoted, greedy, unnecessarily aggressive, angry,
ignorant about things he pretends to be knowledgeable about, falsely pious (if
his favorite book is really the Bible, I will eat my hat), unwilling to admit
making mistakes or apologize and almost unbearably insecure (“My family likes
me”). And beyond that, he is the greatest gift to the Democrats that could
possibly exist. In 2012 his birther boondoggle, in which he pretended to have
investigators in Hawaii finding things we wouldn’t believe, helped sabotage
Romney even though Trump didn’t run. What gifts will he have this time by
running and, possibly, winning the nomination. Not for nothing do some people
suspect he is secretly in league with the Democrats.
Given all these traits, why is he doing so well?
First, he’s not. Let’s say he is somewhere around 25%, a
little less than the realclearpolitics late Aug., early Sept. polls. That means
75% of those polled are for someone else. It is not rocket science to realize
that as the legion of non-super heroes drop out one by one, his numbers will
probably shrink. It is hard not to believe that those who prefer Cruz, Walker,
Huckabee, Graham, Rubio and Santorum, if they drop out, will more likely head
to Carson than Trump. And that may be true of the rest of them, with the
exception of those few who like Carly Fiorina because of her business
background.
Second, in my own anecdotal experience, those who seem to
like Trump most are white middle class men, followed by white middle class
women. Now, that is still the majority in this country, so it’s important. Why
are these people so interested in him?
First, some people are simply sick of being called racist
because they prefer the police to gangs or because they are offended by the
Black Lives Matter movement. They are sick of being called a racist because
they do not want people from other countries moving her illegally.
Second, some people are sick of political correctness. They
want a president who ignores it or mocks it.
Third, some want someone who doesn’t respect the media. They
don’t and they don’t like it when the politicians kow tow to them.
Fourth, some like that not only the media, but to some
degree, some of the other candidates seem intimidated by him. If they weren’t,
do you think that they would not be jumping all over his mistaking the Kurds
for the Iranian Quds force?
Fifth, they buy into his fantasy about being economically
superior. Being a businessman is simply
not the same as being knowledgeable about trade and the economy. They buy into
his phony bologna narrative that his 4 business bankruptcies are a positive,
that those who got stiffed were bad guys rather than investors and people who
trusted in him.
Sixth, they buy into the fantasy that talking tough is the
same as being tough. If we don’t like something China or Russia is doing – we
just tell them “NO!” and they will love us for it.
I was watching Howard Dean on tv recently, and I couldn’t
help but think, there’s a guy who must really be annoyed by the whole Trump
thing. Dean was felled by a single squawking like “yeahhhh!” he gave to
encourage some campaigners. Despite the fact that there was not the slightest
thing wrong with it, he was so mocked it just destroyed him, and the Democrats
were left with the pathetic John Kerry for a candidate. Yet Trump seems to be
able to get away with almost everything. Life isn’t fair.
Slowly, I do believe though that, just as last time, enough
Republicans came to their senses that Romney was the only one who had a chance,
they will realize that Trump has the least chance in a general election and
will self-destruct. Eventually, the ridiculous things he says will start adding
up and a tipping point will be passed.
One thing I’ve learned about myself though watching
presidential race after presidential race – I don’t know who the next president
will be. The other thing I’ve learned, is that it does not stop me from making
predictions.
So, here is prediction no. 1. Trump will not be the nominee.
Obviously, I don’t know when he will fall, but I think when he does, it will be
as big as he has been, and it will be like a crane falling on Trump Towers.
Carson
I don’t know what to make up him. Part of me believes he is
a product of Trump’s rise, part of me thinks he would be right where he was
anyway. His quiet demeanor and obvious intelligence are his strong points. As
with Trump, his lack of knowledge on the issues does not seem to hurt him at
all. I don’t think we know enough about him to make any kind of judgment.
Katich
Last month I made what I called an “early unofficial”
prediction, which is pretty funny because all my predictions are unofficial and
I say early just so I can backtrack on it without too much embarrassment if I
am completely wrong. Also, it is no fun for me if it is a prediction everyone
else is making. Hence, I’ll take a shot.
If I’m wrong, me and lot of other people. If I’m right, who is going to have it
in his blog? That’s right. Wealth, fame, the 7 o’clock slot on Morning Joe (I
wonder if you have to put in a request for a specific kind of coffee). Or,
nothing.
Nevertheless, one prediction was that Katich would be the
Republican nominee. Although it is still
really early and unofficial (whatever that means), I see no reason to change
it. Nationally, he’s polling in the middle, although far closer to the bottom
than the top. That’s all right though, because Trump is a phenomenon I think will dissipate (though he
disappoints every such prediction so far), the other supposed front–runners
have been shown to be weak, and he’s doing well in New Hampshire, which will
give him a bigger bump than Iowa, a state which is such a poor predictor of
Republican victors that they cancelled their traditional Ames Poll this year to
spare themselves the embarrassment. Like a long distance runner staying behind
but in contact with the pack, I’m feeling okay about it. Not great. But, okay.
Fiorina
Why is it that most everyone thinks she will be the VP
choice? A poll which asks for second,
third and fourth choices puts her clearly on top. She was my early favorite before Katich
jumped in. It’s not that I am especially in agreement with her about anything,
or there is something about her that screams competency for me. It’s that she
seemed relatively moderate and more articulate and intelligent than most of the
other candidates and she wasn’t being particularly martinetish or obsequious to
anyone or even going out of her way to be charming or likeable. Not that this
necessarily makes a great president, but it’s a much better start than most of
them have for me.
And the others . . .
If I had my way, most of the other Republican candidates
would just go away. Not that I particularly dislike any of them, but they go
from the ridiculous - Pataki, Jindal, Perry and Gilmore. Some aren’t ridiculous
but have no chance this time – Paul, Christie, Huckabee and Santorum. Of those
not mentioned above, Cruz, Rubio and Bush have some kind of shot given some
seismic shift, but of the three, Cruz is unelectable in a general election. Of
the whole group, whether I think they could win the nomination or not, only
Carson, Fiorina, Rubio, Katich, Christie and Bush would have a real chance in a
general election with a slim chance for Walker, who I think has hurt more than
helped himself so far.
After Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina I expect the
following people left. Possibly Trump, Carson, Bush, Walker, Katich, Fiorina,
Cruz. Maybe Rubio, but I’m not sure. It would shock no one that after the Summer of Trump, if Bush makes a comeback. When Trump is out - if Trump goes out, everything changes.
However, since I stick with my litmus test that a
conservative candidate who carries on about same sex marriage and doesn’t
believe in either global warming (Me? Still agnostic about it) or evolution does
not have a chance in a general election, we go down to pretty much Katich and
Fiorina. However, it is possible that Carson would be an exception to the rule
despite his position. I do not know about Jeb Bush. And, of course, it matters
who the other nominee is.
Got it?
Clinton
Despite Trump’s Teflon qualities, Clinton seems to share
many of them. Until very recently, her numbers were actually better than
Trump’s despite the seeming inevitable doom of the email scandal. As the
revelations and problems come out (this week the guy who set up her server took
the 5th and it came out from other staffers that she paid State
Dep’t personnel to work for her on the server personally – talk about a
conflict of interest. The email scandal is well covered in the news and I don’t
feel the need to just review it.
No doubt, she still has her supporters, but I suspect that
this week was the tipping point for her. Of course, as we know, just because
someone gets crushed after being on top, doesn’t mean that they can’t come
back. And, I tend to notice that this is more typical of front runners, at
least of late.
There is one thing she has on her side. She’s a woman and
identity politics is very important. I
think it has helped Carly Fiorina too, although she does not have a
constituency or the media on her side to help. I think it is helping Ben
Carson, as some conservatives will no doubt want to show that they are not the
racists that the media and Democrats make them out to be. As I often say to
liberals who accuse them of racism (not that some aren’t) is that there aren’t
very many conservatives who would not be delighted by Clarence Thomas ran for
president and we know that Herman Cain had his run before it turned out he had
as much Bill Clinton in his make up as Ronald Reagan.
There are few things that will save H. Clinton if another
loud shoe drops. It is always the nature of partisans to ignore as far as it is
possible when one of their own transgresses. As is so often pointed out by
resentful conservatives – “Can you imagine if this came out about George Bush?
Every journalist. . . .” But, unlike Trump, other than her name recognition and
femaleness, there is not a lot about her that makes people want to stand up and
cheer. She is famously portrayed by Washington insiders as fun on a personal
level, but more wooden in public than Al Gore was when he ran. Obama is
president today because he was likeable in debates whereas she was just
ponderous.
Sanders
I get why progressives love him. He demonizes wealthy
people, particularly conservative ones, he promises free stuff for everyone,
boldly calls himself a socialist and can be as outspoken, but not usually as
personally insulting, as Trump is. And he is also a bit of a character, unlike
say Katich, who is also doing well in NH right now. I wouldn’t be all that excited if I were him
though that he has overtaken Clinton in New Hampshire polls because he’s from
Vermont, and the only difference between the two states in almost every way is
which side of the black line they are on.
Sanders does have a chance in the nomination process if two
things happen. First, Clinton continues to decline because of the email scandal
and Biden doesn’t jump in. Which leads us to . . .
Biden
The Democrat prediction I was that Joe Biden would be the
Democrat nominee. Naturally, the first step would be for him to actually run
for the job. I believe him when he said he didn’t know if he and his family had
the emotional fire to do it. He seems, giant smiley teeth and all, to be
genuinely depressed by the death of his son. Who can blame him? Of course the
same tragedy is what gives an emotional charge to his run. The consensus right now is that this is not
the Joe Biden of 6 years ago and I agree. That doesn’t mean if he gets the
limelight for a few weeks, the old Joe Biden won’t be back. But, I don’t think
so. And Democrats who want another liberal president to appoint new Supreme
Court Justices and continue the trend to the left in our politics, will support
him over Bernie Sanders, who will excite the far left but possibly not as much
as it does the far right.
Like almost everyone, personally, I like Biden. Most
candidates are for me too far left or too far right, and he’s too far left.
But, not so far as others. And, despite occasionally outbursts of goofiness or
harmless awkward behavior with women, he’s reasonably bright. It is hard to
miss that of almost everyone in the belt, he, almost alone had the good sense
to agree with me (and I’m sure I’m where he got the idea from) that Iraq was
really three countries – though he would go no further than suggesting three
autonomous provinces. To the contrary, the one time I saw him being just
unbearable was a whine-fest during a Supreme Court confirmation hearing – I
think of Justice Roberts. And he was out front in the administration turning
towards supporting gay rights and what sometimes seemed like the only reasonably
honest person in that administration, at least at the beginning. All these are
good things. I probably would not vote for him, and he would not be my choice
among the Democrats, but he would not make me think the world was coming to an
end either.
And the others . . .
As for Webb and O'Malley, it is very hard to see a path forward, as they say. You never know. Webb strikes me as the someone I might be interested in. I've heard O'Malley speak a few times and he is probably not. His embarrassing capitulation to some young men and women of Black Lives Matter almost disqualifies him by itself.
All of these many predictions are of course subject to
illness, some national crisis or scandal and gaffe. Those, no one can predict.
Iran
I have a little over a week until I have to vote on Iran.
I’ve been giving it a bit of thought. I didn’t know what to think at first. I
will say that John Kerry, who is among my least favorite politicians for a long
time, and who I find disingenuous, too ambitious and often worse, has done his
best work in defending (as opposed to negotiating) the deal.
In the end, if I had to vote on the 16th of this
month, I’d vote no. This is why. First, I am not someone who favors filibusters
in general as a regular legislative process. Though obviously a legal
procedure, I see them as a weakness, not a strength of the Senate. Though of course
there are things that I would not wish the Senate to vote for, the way it
should work is up and down. So, I will be angered if the Democrats do not allow
an up and down vote. And just for the record, I felt the same way when
Republicans were blocking votes too.
Second, I have never been satisfied with Kerry’s answers
regarding our political prisoners. He usually says that it was raised at every
meeting. That means one of several possibilities must be true. He did not have
a strong hand in the negotiations. Or he did not press hard enough. Or he
didn’t threaten to walk from the talks on that account. Which was it? Someone
should spend some time on this when questioning him and they don’t.
Third, I am not that worried about the timing of
inspections, because my understanding is that the IAEF is very satisfied that
even a significant delay – say two months or even more – will not deter them
technologically. However, the knowledge of secret agreements between Iran and
the IAEF, who I do trust, is not acceptable. As part of the negotiations, the
waiver of secret agreements, at least to the leadership in congress, should
have been paramount. No doubt Kerry and the others were aware of this and did
not press it.
Fourth and most important, I cannot make head or tails of
the sanctions regime. What we are being told is that sanctions are
compartmentalized such that although we cannot sanction on nuclear grounds if
they are in compliance, we can sanction on other grounds. But, it has never
been clear that the language of the agreement states this clearly nor is it at
all explained how to prevent Iran, of whom the administration say they have no
trust, will not simply claim we are in non-compliance whenever they want.
I do not agree with critics that this is a path to the bomb
(any country can violate a treaty or agreement whenever it wants) or that it
does not reduce Iranian nuclear capacity – it does – but I do think that it is
a situation where we had a very strong hand and did not play it or played it
poorly. In the end, it of course makes Iran much stronger, and that is a
problem for all of our allies in the neighborhood.
And
All of this pales in comparison
with the news in the NFL, which I hope to get to before the season starts
Thursday.
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