A friend of mine wrote me in September – “In your humble opinion, who is an overall better QB – Brady or Rodgers? And why?” Her husband had said Rodgers was and she wanted to know what I thought. I gave her a complex answer. Sometime later, the ineffable Bear (I actually forget what that word means without looking it up – it just sounds good with “Bear”) said that not to vex me for being a Brady lover, but he thought Rodgers was the better of the two right now. I think I replied that I had actually said similar things in the past myself.
Then we had the big build up a few weeks ago when the two played – just ridiculous to assume that a single game could decide such a question when we all know the teams play, not the QBs. Brady’s team almost always beats everyone, and his record against the other great QBs, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, etc., is awesome too. I forget the numbers, but he almost always wins. But, he’d be the first to say, he’s not playing the other QB - the teams are playing. He’s now 1-1 with Rodgers. The two players were great, complimenting one another – Brady saying how Rodgers inspired him to play better (probably true) and Rodgers saying that Brady had five rings, so discussion over (probably also true).
After the game, which the Patriots easily won in the second half, I actually heard a commentator suggest that the argument was over, that obviously it meant Brady was the GOAT. It is even more ridiculous that in just two years everyone has forgotten about Peyton Manning and leaves him out of the conversation!! Not to mention Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Drew Brees and every other QB who quite a few might think has a shot at that title.
Not for nothing, but if you look at this year alone, Drew Brees, among the old guard, looks like the last man standing, breaking all kinds of records. His pass completion average alone, even given the new rules protecting QBs, is unheard of – 76 or so %. And yes, the game has changed and many people’s percentage is up. But, no one else’s is like his. And, right now, Roethlisberger and Rivers are playing better than most of the old timers too.
But, I’m not looking at this year, when the new rules have really changed things, and when not only Brady, now 41, might have finally hit a wall, as Peyton Manning did a few years back, and also possibly Rodgers, who has recently said football mortality comes to all of them. However, his ability to not turn over the ball is unequaled, even by Brady and only by Brees this year. But he hasn’t really performed well this year, and you can’t blame it all on his team.
You can argue Johnny Unitas is the real GOAT, or Joe Montana, etc. all you want. Times change, particularly for QBs, because the game has changed so much. Mahomes and Goff are just not going to get hit the way Manning, Rodgers, Brady and Brees did and it will make a big difference in their performance. Honestly, I think that’s a good thing and it will make the game more fun, though some people my age. There’s no reason the QBs career has to be in danger all the time. The records will all be broken and Drew Brees and probably Rodgers may shatter all the records before Mahomes (I guess we will see) and who knows who else shatters them again.
I’m just looking at the last ten years and just at Brady, Rodgers, Brees and Manning. First, let’s accept that:
-I’m not including Roethlisberger or Rivers. They are great QBs. But, no, not quite in the same league.
-Injuries are just too bad on the injured. It’s football, not chess. Bo Jackson could have turned out to be an all-time great running back, but he got hurt early in his career. I think Gayle Sayers would have been the all-time greatest running back, but he got hurt. I think J.J. Watt would still be considered the no. 1 defensive player, ranked already with LT (despite what Belichick said), but he got hurt, severely, twice. Too bad on him. Rodgers has gotten hurt in the last few years – but we can’t say, would he have played better or worse. Though an injury may be a fluke and/or unavoidable, keeping as safe as possible without giving up to quick, knowing when to take the sack, to stop extending the play, and when to do it, is a talent too.
-it’s a team game. It’s a team game. It’s a team game. I’ve said many times that if Brees or Manning or Rodgers had been in Brady’s place on the Patriots, maybe the world would look the same, but just with a different QB. But, again, it is what it is. I do think it makes a difference when you analyze players who they are playing for, but you can only take it so far. Did I write this isn’t chess?
-Manning retired a few years ago and so it is not a perfect contest. What is?
If I just said that I thought Brady was the best over the last ten years or so, you would just think I’m biased. Well, okay, I am biased. But, I’ve never let my bias affect me in saying the things I wrote in the first paragraph and I will lay out an argument you can agree or disagree with. Here it is:
First, he’s the GOAT, because as Rodgers said, he has the five rings. It’s not as if he was just along for the ride. You can argue that Peyton Manning was not the reason the Broncos won the SB in 2015 and I agree. You can argue that Eli Manning wasn’t the main reason the Giants beat the Pats twice and I agree, although I thought he played really well, one year great. But, Brady was at least one of two major reasons the Pats are what they are, including five time SB winners and eight-time competitors - Belichick being the other main reason.* Brady’s a three time SB MVP. Winning isn’t everything when it comes to greatness. Many athletes belong in the hall of fame, and arguably, you can be the GOAT, even if you are never on a team good enough to win the big one. It’s rare that the GOAT doesn’t find his way there. Whether Jabbar, Chamberlain, Russell or Shak is the greatest center ever – they all won championships. In what team sport is there a GOAT, who was not a champion?
Winning isn’t everything and if the Giants win the next three SBs (after this year) with Eli at the helm, I doubt it will be b/c of him or that he would be called the GOAT by anyone. But, in all sports, it is still the gold standard. We can love and respect Ernie Banks, Karl Malone, Randy Moss, Tony Gwynn, etc.
Second, I reviewed the last ten years top 100 players in the NFL. The reason I did is because the list is voted on by the NFL players. And, maybe that is not the end all (I definitely think it is not), but you would certainly seem to think that one’s peers might have some say. First, let’s look at the last three years. Granted, Rodgers has been hurt a few times, but again, we are ranking what is, not what could be.
2018 1. Brady 8. Brees 10. Rodgers
2017 1. Brady 6. Rodgers 16. Brees
2016 1. Newton 2. Brady 6. Rodgers 30. Brees
So, for the last two years, the NFL peers have decided Tom Brady is the best player in the league. If you go back another year, first twice and second once. I’ll leave aside from now that it was idiocy to rank Newton ahead of Brady, but, in that same three years – Rodgers was rated sixth twice and tenth. Brees eighth, sixteenth and thirtieth. I know, Brees is no. 1 or 2 this year, but we are talking about since Rodgers became the starter for Green Bay up to this year. You might ask, why are we even having this conversation? Let’s go all the way back to 2011 when they started this peer voting. Give 100 points to no. 1, 1 point to no. 100, etc. Here’s how they would rank:
Brady: 790/800
Rodgers: 756/800
Brees: 696/800
To show you the difference between Brady and Rodgers, in eight years, Brady was first 3 times, second 2 times, third 1 time, fourth 2 times. In other words, his peers thought, for almost half those years, the first or second best player, and for eight years, never less than the fourth best player in the league. Compare his nearest competition, Rodgers. In those same 8 years, his peers thought he was the best player in the league 2 times, sixth best 3 times, tenth best 1 time, eleventh best 2 times. Still don’t get the huge difference between the best and second best player the last eight years (no one else is close) according to NFL players? Try this.
Brady Rodgers
1st 3 times 2 times
2nd 2 times
3rd 1 time
4th 2 times
5th
6th 3times
7th
8th
9th
10th 1 time
11th 2 times
Even if you say that, well, Rodgers was hurt the last couple of seasons, Brady has never been voted worse than fourth best and Rodgers is likely next best, but not even close. Leave aside the five rings which Rodgers says shuts down the conversation. Doesn’t this shut it down too? I know people have this thing about Rodgers (not least, because he’s fantastic). I do think many people want the rugged looking, cool speaking, occasionally edgy Rodgers, who won the SB once and who doesn’t speak with his family, to be better than the howdy-doodyish, family loving, platitude-speaking, perfect looking guy married to the most successful model in history, Brady, with his fist full of rings. If you have watched the WWE in the past 10-15 years, think John Cena. As nice a guy and great a wrestler as the character he plays is, many fans just hate him. I won’t get into the whole “cheater” thing, which is equivalent to one child saying another has cooties, and it is likely their own team has a much worse "cheating" record, if they actually looked - and leave aside that Brady was never even accused of cheating by the NFL (he was accused of some quasi-knowledge of vague wrongdoing). Sports fandom is like politics - few care about the facts.
Third, let’s look at the Associated Press MVP voting since Rodgers was a starter. The votes are made by professional writers who concentrate on pro football. During that period of time, Manning was voted MVP by the writers 5 times. You have a better argument that Manning is the GOAT than Rodgers. Brady has three and Rodgers only 2 MVPs. In the past three years, Brady was MVP once, but second the other two times.** As to who has been the best the last three years even, isn’t the conversation over? And this is true despite the fact that Rodgers is much younger and should be playing better.
** My own opinion is that Brady probably did not deserve the MVP last year, though he was close. However, he deserved it for 2015, when he played the entire season with a brand new O-line and most of his receivers hurt all season, and in 2016 when he missed the first four games. Why did Newton, then Ryan win instead? I have no way to know or prove it, but I think there was just Brady fatigue at the time - let's give it to another QB. Why the change back in 2017? Because he just keeps outperforming everyone as he ages, including the miraculous 2016 SB, and like with Brees this year, it was hard not to love it.
** My own opinion is that Brady probably did not deserve the MVP last year, though he was close. However, he deserved it for 2015, when he played the entire season with a brand new O-line and most of his receivers hurt all season, and in 2016 when he missed the first four games. Why did Newton, then Ryan win instead? I have no way to know or prove it, but I think there was just Brady fatigue at the time - let's give it to another QB. Why the change back in 2017? Because he just keeps outperforming everyone as he ages, including the miraculous 2016 SB, and like with Brees this year, it was hard not to love it.
You could go the statistical route. But, it would be too hard. Both Brady and Rodgers have a lot of records. Brady has more career records, although I presume Brees will surpass him in most that he hasn't already, but, Rodgers has the highest QB rating, which some say means little (I don’t) and the best TD/interception ratio, which I think very important, maybe the most important figure. But, Brady is next on the list and over a longer span of time. You can pick your statistics. Records are usually broken by younger players as the game changes and I presume they all will be.
Looking at the rings, looking at the votes of their peers and looking at the MVP voting, I have to conclude that not only is Brady the best since he came into the league, consistently year after year, but, he’s been the best recently, at least up to the end of last year. None of this is anti-Rodgers, Brees or Manning, all of who are fantastic, the elite of the last 20 years, with Rodgers just being the youngest and most athletic - maybe the one with the most potential. That's a much tougher question. And, we know it must bother Drew Brees that up until this year, few were putting him in the conversation.
This year will bring what it will, but up until now, at least, I think the strongest arguments are that Brady has been the best of them. If you disagree, let's hear the actual arguments. I wish you could comment anonymously, but we know Google makes that difficult now for some reason I don't understand (maybe something I did or didn't do that I should have - I don't know). But, if you want, email me and I will post it myself anonymously for you or however you like. That rarely happens, but I offer it.
Next month, the 13th Holiday Spectacular.
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