Nate Silver had a good 2012
election. He's actually had two consecutive good ones. Unfortunately for his critics he seems to
have an uncanny ability to predict outcomes. It is too early of course for him to make
predictions for 2016. What he really does is track polling data from others
giving each poll the weight he thinks it deserves. Therein lies his
talent.
I really just want to borrow his
list as a tool to discuss who will be running. It is too early for anyone sane to make
2016 predictions, but I do not need to worry about my reputation
because I don't have one. That
is liberating and I can freely do what I want without fear that being wrong
might affect my non-existent career (not that any pundits seem to suffer from
being almost incessantly wrong). I can't
begin to predict who might do an exploratory committee some day as that is the
political equivalent of going on on a date as opposed to proposing marriage to
someone, but I will try, years and years into the future, to predict who might
actually go as far as seeing how they fair in the Iowa caucuses. If I'm wrong,
I can rely on the ol' stand-by - well,
no one can predict that far ahead. If I am right - then I am a political
Nostradamus. My record for this is pretty
good if you go back as far as 2006, when I made predictions for 2008, though
that was considerably closer to the coming election than now is to 2016. I also
did well on the last election, when other than Newt Gingrich, I think I nailed
everyone. Admittedly, some people I was
pretty vague about. We don't even know
for sure if all these people will be alive in 2016.
First, who will not be
running. Let's look at the governors
first: Mitt Romney has shot his bolt. At
this point in America, you get one shot.
I suppose someone will change that someday, but not Romney. Scott Walker
is often talked about but he is a conservative darling who is not much known
outside of Wisconsin by the general public and has negative appeal thanks to
his public union busting. Chris Christie
is harder to determine, but though you won't see it discussed in polite
television discussions, I think it really depends on his weight. I do not
believe an extra-large Christie will be a candidate. Just imagine the Saturday
Night Live skits with him wolfing down McDonalds and eating off his opponents'
plates. He also would have a lot of
difficulty in Republican primaries for having given Obama an emotional hug just
before the election (for no reason - Obama had to help NJ in today's political
climate after Hurricane Sandy), though a more slender Christie would do well in
a general election. It does not appear to me he is controlling his weight, but
a lot can change in a year, particularly with surgery available. Sarah Palin
will tease again, but the desire for her even among conservatives has wained
and she will not be serious for more than a news cycle or so. Rick Perry is still governor in Texas, but he really took a
beating last time despite huge expectations and I doubt will try again. He
really performed badly, and if his excesses were not an act, then he should not
be president anyway. On the other
hand, Tim Pawlenty may throw his name
out there again, just to see if anything has changed, but I think he and
Republicans understand that he is just not the guy. He will not get the funding
he needs and not even go as far as he did this time. I also think Herman Cain has seen his best
days. Sex scandals can be come back
from, but you need to admit it first.
It's politics. I could change my mind tomorrow about the above predictions like I do each week as to what flavor cupcake I crave (I'm thinking some kind of apply thingee I've had before; have you experienced the explosion in cupcake cuisine the last two years? It makes me so happy. Eating "healthy" be damned.)
Silver recently went through
potential GOP candidates and rated them on their conservatism using three
different systems and combining them into his own. His chart for this is set below. Chris Christie was the least conservative by
far, although I do not think it is really accurate for him. I doubt for example that Mitt Romney is 4xs
more conservative than he is or Rand Paul 7xs more conservative. Nor would I
say that Romney was less conservative than Reagan, who might be considered a
RINO today, stripped of his legend. Consider the following: Reagan had his
ambassador vote to condemn Israel in the U.N.
He instituted actual amnesty for immigrants. He raised taxes (though he lowered them more,
that would not fly in today's climate), increased spending, loved Hollywood and
Rock n' Roll, did not retaliate when the Soviets blem up KAL 700, engaged in
extra-congressional acts of war (Libya, Grenada - though both would be covered
by war powers act) and hung out with lefty Tip O'Neill. Not only is he less conservative than Romney (or at least the Romney character created as a presidential candidate) he might in fact be
almost shunned today. Silver's chart also shows how much more conservative the party
is today than in Reagan's era.
So it is no surprise that Silver
is vague and his main conclusions are very non-predictive, given how early they
come - "Thus, my contention that Mr. Rubio is a good representative
of the Republican Party as it stands today" and "There are some
viable candidates to Mr. Rubio’s right" are not exactly like saying Paul
Ryan will be the next presidential candidate.
Some from the last run will
more likely try again. Like Perry, Jon Huntsman came in with a great deal of
exaggerated momentum (he never had a chance for a second). I believe that for most of his run, it was
really about getting name recognition for 2016, and he might give it a go. Depending on what happens with the Republican
fiscal/cultural schism, he could do better, but only if he can last through the
initial filtering in Iowa and I just don't think so. That is true of many
people. Like Christie, thanks to his low
conservative ratings, Huntsman would actually do better in a general election
than a more conservative nominee.
Rick Santorum has to be
reckoned with. I think if he does try, he will be making a mistake. It is
natural when someone does well at something, to think it is them and not the
circumstances. But, in his case, it really was the circumstances. After Gingrich self-destructed for the second
time, there was no one else for the "anybody but Romney" crowd to go
for. In order to attract any attention
he needed Perry and Gingrich and Bachmann and Cain to all come and go. Before
that his polling numbers were abysmal.
If he runs this time, he will again be shunted to the side. Bachmann is
hardest for me to predict. Few really
want her to run, but she and her family might decide she is needed somehow.
Mistake. She will fare no better and probably worse this time. Run for Senator
first if you ever want to get anywhere. Ron Paul is, of course, retired, and I
suspect despite a draft effort by libertarians, he will stay that way. If he
tried again, it would be getting in his own son's way.
There are the three young
"stars" for lack of a better word, too. Rubio,
Nikki Haley and Bobby Jindal may all take a look at it and quite possibly will
go through Iowa. They are all "ethnics" that will help the GOP show it is not the
party of mostly white men (snicker - come on - isn't it mostly?) although I have never
understood why many Hispanics are not considered "white" or caucasian. Are they not in Europe? Mixing a language group among ethnic groups just points out the idiocy of our demographic system.
Rubio seems almost certain to run. His appeal is obvious, if mundane - he's a Republican Hispanic, good looking and successful, having been a governor and senator. Silver points out something though that I do not think well recognized - he is very conservatism. I've already pointed out that the chart strikes me as erroneous in some aspects, but I think he is right that Rubio is more conservative than any Republican candidate since the gold standard for conservatism, Barry Goldwater, in 1964. You can listen to his speeches yourself but you will easily discern it in them. It is obvious why this would be beneficial in the primaries, but how it will sell in an increasingly liberal and minority empowered America is harder to say. I do not know that this will benefit him. The hope would be, among the less conservative on the right, that his other qualities will count for more than his politics. There is certainly recent precedent. America is not as liberal as Barack Obama, but his story and his ethnicity and his other personal qualities, not to mention a very effective campaign organization and Republican campaign incompetence, have made up the difference in spades. I'm certainly not prepared to make predictions yet as to who the nominee will be, but if I was forced to, it is hard to believe he would not be the early front runner.
Haley and Jindal are harder to read. I want to suggest that Jindal, despite his popularity among Republicans, is a bit of a Tim Pawlenty. I have heard Haley speak too and seen her interviewed. She has a telegenic charisma that Jindal , Pawlenty and even Rubio, do not have. In fact, if it looks like Hillary Clinton will be the front-runner for the Democrats, Haley may seem like a good idea to many Republicans. By the way, originally Sikh, she is now a Christian. Now why would someone do that? Hmmm. Oh and Bobby Jindal - originally Hindu, now Catholic. Maybe I'm just cynical, the way I was when John McCain became a Baptist, but, lots of people change religions all the time, don't they? Sure, and so many politicians just happen to schedule vacations and talks in Iowa and New Hampshire too.
Speaking of Haley, I do not
see former Mississippi governor, Haley Barbour running though he might actually
make a good candidate. He has been a
very successful lobbyist (one of the biggest), RNC chairmen and generally
popular governor, tarred by pardons at the end of his term and also the
inevitable racial questions a white southern Republican governor would be
expected to face. He will not run. Two other governors bear consideration though.
Bob McDonnell of Virginia has done an outstanding job by almost all accounts as
Virginia governor. Like many
Republicans, he will be tarred by his attitude towards gays, which he has never
changed since winning the governorship in spite of criticism about it. Possibly his first act as governor was to
re-issue the state's executive order regarding discrimination. He made one
change. He removed gays from protected status.
If you ask yours truly, the Republican position on gay marriage hurt
them this last time around. It will more so in 2016. I don't know if it will
disqualify McDonnell. Maybe not in the Republican Primary, but as we've seen,
it is not the same as a general election.
He has made other statements that will not serve him well, though they
will give him support among his base.
Another consideration is Rob Portman, also strongly considered for
Romney's VP, who appears to me to have something solid about him that people
respect. I think he is a possibility. On the other hand, I think he would have
to be pushed to it and he has made no moves that would indicate that he is
thinking about it.Rubio seems almost certain to run. His appeal is obvious, if mundane - he's a Republican Hispanic, good looking and successful, having been a governor and senator. Silver points out something though that I do not think well recognized - he is very conservatism. I've already pointed out that the chart strikes me as erroneous in some aspects, but I think he is right that Rubio is more conservative than any Republican candidate since the gold standard for conservatism, Barry Goldwater, in 1964. You can listen to his speeches yourself but you will easily discern it in them. It is obvious why this would be beneficial in the primaries, but how it will sell in an increasingly liberal and minority empowered America is harder to say. I do not know that this will benefit him. The hope would be, among the less conservative on the right, that his other qualities will count for more than his politics. There is certainly recent precedent. America is not as liberal as Barack Obama, but his story and his ethnicity and his other personal qualities, not to mention a very effective campaign organization and Republican campaign incompetence, have made up the difference in spades. I'm certainly not prepared to make predictions yet as to who the nominee will be, but if I was forced to, it is hard to believe he would not be the early front runner.
Haley and Jindal are harder to read. I want to suggest that Jindal, despite his popularity among Republicans, is a bit of a Tim Pawlenty. I have heard Haley speak too and seen her interviewed. She has a telegenic charisma that Jindal , Pawlenty and even Rubio, do not have. In fact, if it looks like Hillary Clinton will be the front-runner for the Democrats, Haley may seem like a good idea to many Republicans. By the way, originally Sikh, she is now a Christian. Now why would someone do that? Hmmm. Oh and Bobby Jindal - originally Hindu, now Catholic. Maybe I'm just cynical, the way I was when John McCain became a Baptist, but, lots of people change religions all the time, don't they? Sure, and so many politicians just happen to schedule vacations and talks in Iowa and New Hampshire too.
It is also hard to completely
discount Paul Ryan. He is young and
energetic and did well enough in the debates and on television to merit
consideration. I don't feel it with him
though. There is a nerdish air about him that he may not even be aware of, even
if he can run for miles and do a lot of push ups. I expect he will test the
waters, but those who might have been attracted to him will more likely go for
the other rising stars.
Rand Paul, Ron's son, is also
trying to craft a public identity different from his father. He has gone to
Israel as if on a pilgrimage, but it was obvious what he was trying to do. If you are considered weak on Israel, you
aren't going far in Republican circles. It was damage repair. The truth is, he
is still a young man who is trying to figure out a way to remain true to
libertarian principles while also figuring out how to appeal to conservatives
that don't always see eye to eye with their uncomfortable partners. If you read
conservative columnists, they are often extremely critical of libertarians,
sometimes saying that they have no values.
He has a couple of years to craft. I do not rule him out.
Gingrich fooled me last time. I
thought he was too smart to run, but he wasn't. He came in with a surge due to
his glibness and willingness to be an attack dog, but make a mockery of
himself. When Herman Cain snuffed out in his sex scandal, Gingrich seemed like
the only possibility at the time (few were then taking Santorum seriously) and
he had a second shot. Of course, he is Gingrich, and again tripped over
himself. There are many positive things
to say about him, but one characteristic seems overwhelming. He cannot stifle
his arrogance and need to promote himself.
Other politicians may be as arrogant.
But they hide it better. He also
talks faster than he thinks and frequently contradicts himself. He is
opportunistic and will jump on any bandwagon he thinks may ride him to the
front of the line. That includes going after Romney in a way that was very
destructive to Republican opportunities in general. He is immune, as we've seen, to common sense.
He might run again despite all the signs he should not. But, once burned, I
will simply wait and see this time. Unpredictable.
There is someone else who is not
on Silver's list who I not only think might still be a possibility, but hope
will run, as, right now, he would be the one I would most likely give my
support too (as if that would do any candidate any good). That is former
governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana. There are others out there who see something
in him. He is a fiscal conservative who tries to stay away from the cultural
issues. I suspect, like any Republican candidate I like even a little that has
a possibility of success (so, no, not Gary Johnson) if he was going to
seriously try, he'd have to make certain concessions to the right wing
concerning religious or quasi-religious issues. But, he has already said that
we need a hiatus (I forget the word he used) about cultural issues while we
figure out economic problems. That is
what I want to hear.
Last time, he did not enter the
lists because of family considerations. From what I understand, his wife left
him for another man, but is now back again. There may be more to the story, but
apparently his wife and daughters did not want him to run because of it. I
can't say I blame them too much. Presidential politics is disgusting and there
are people who would happily destroy your family to gain an advantage. But, I
hope they change their minds and he gives it a whirl.
As I've written about before, on the
right there is a growing schism between the fiscal and cultural conservatism. I
don't know if they can find someone who will satisfy both ends of the party.
Some obviously think Rubio is that guy. I
don't know. But
if it can be said there is a front runner right now -- as silly as that sounds
-- it is probably him.
As for the Democrats, Obama and
Clinton have sucked the air out of the room for almost all other candidates.
There is a strong impulse among many of them for "Hillary." Certainly
it can no longer be said that she is just a former first lady, having been a
senator and now a secretary of state.
If she stays in relative good health, is not further entwined in any more Benghazi drama, and if her husband can manage to avoid further
scandal, she certainly would be the front runner. Right now, I can only think of Joe Biden and
John Kerry having the presumption to think they could beat her. Biden is a very
unusual man, at once very likeable and capable and on the other hand appearing
snide, arrogant and almost uncontrollable in his impulses - he is also one of those politicians who makes screws up by telling the truth.
Kerry arrogance probably exceeds Gingrich's and that is really
saying something. He has managed to lose
an election before, so I have trouble seeing him raising any money if he is interested. But Biden has a lot of friends and pull. Of course, there may be newcomers like Obama
again. Because they are in power, it is
more difficult to think who among the Democrats might run. I will need a year
or so more before I make even early predictions about them.
It's politics. I could change my mind tomorrow about the above predictions like I do each week as to what flavor cupcake I crave (I'm thinking some kind of apply thingee I've had before; have you experienced the explosion in cupcake cuisine the last two years? It makes me so happy. Eating "healthy" be damned.)