Thursday, July 14, 2016

VP Stakes


But we do, we do.

Trump will pick Mike Pence. I know some in his family will want Newt, but he is as explosive, arrogant, sensitive and quarrelsome as Trump. I guess I am saying he will not pick Newt, because I can't believe he will make even more mistakes. But, sigh, that would be a shame. There was a time a few years ago where I thought I could stomach a Christie presidency, but I have since been put off by his support for Trump.

I'm going with Pence because he's experienced (as are the other two), and he seems like a normal person, whereas Newt and Christie seem like characters.

I know people have said Jeff Sessions is in it. I think that is out of politeness, because of Session's early support. I do not think Gen'l Michael Flynn will be his choice either. Trump thinks he is his own best adviser on everything, including the military.

My chances for each:

Pence: 35%
Gingrich: 30%
Christie: 25%
Other: 10%

Clinton I have narrowed down to three also, not that there are any surprises. I do not think she will go with another woman. Tim Kaine, Julian Castro and Adm. James Stavridis. Kaine is tough and middle of the road, Castro is Hispanic and that's what they care about, and Stavridis makes her look strong. This is the order that seem most likely to me:

Kaine: 35%
Castro: 30%
Stavridis: 20%
Other: 15%

Of course, I've been wrong about everything else in this campaign, so . . . .


  1. Good call on Pence.

    1. I was just in time. They announced later that day. About time I got one right.

  2. Kaine was an easy call, but Pence was not. Good job, Frodo. You've been on a roll lately. It's been a while since I skipped half your blog or thought you wrote it while smoking crack.


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I started this blog in September, 2006. Mostly, it is where I can talk about things that interest me, which I otherwise don't get to do all that much, about some remarkable people who should not be forgotten, philosophy and theories (like Don Foster's on who wrote A Visit From St. Nicholas and my own on whether Santa is mostly derived from a Norse god) and analysis of issues that concern me. Often it is about books. I try to quote accurately and to say when I am paraphrasing (more and more). Sometimes I blow the first name of even very famous people, often entertainers. I'm much better at history, but once in a while I see I have written something I later learned was not true. Sometimes I fix them, sometimes not. My worst mistake was writing that Beethoven went blind, when he actually went deaf. Feel free to point out an error. I either leave in the mistake, or, if I clean it up, the comment pointing it out. From time to time I do clean up grammar in old posts as, over time I have become more conventional in my grammar, and I very often write these when I am falling asleep and just make dumb mistakes. It be nice to have an editor, but . . . .