Thoughts on the Debate

As I was saying to my libertarian-minded friend Don today (and a lot of other people on previous days), I have given up being serious about political predictions. Long-time ago I realized that I was wrong more than I was right, like everyone else. 

Why do we keep doing it? I'm not sure. But, at some point I realized that when it was right, I thought it was because of my analysis and when I was wrong, it was because of something unforeseeable. And so it is with you too. 

The famous psychologist who wrote Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, gave an example of when he was in the Israeli army, and he and a group were tasked with evaluating which soldiers among a group of trainees would become good leaders. He found two things. One, they were almost always wrong. And, two, it didn't make any difference in their analysis. They just kept applying the same strategies that didn't work the first time.

I do know who I want to win. Whatever win means in a debate when, unlike sports, both declare victory. I want Trump to win. 

I wrote this morning to some friends something like:

"All my hopes and fears for us rests in the hands of our President, who represents our country and is the last best hope for mankind. And whom I often refer to as an idiot."

Because he is right now, our last hope, despite his almost preternatural ability to f' things up with his biiiiiiig mouth (or evatweetin' fingers). You might have read the previous quote and said - wait, the last best hope for mankind can refer to the country, not to the president. It's actually derived from a Lincoln line, and I can write whatever I want. Until those who want to declare whatever they disagree with hate-speech, ban my blog, I can still write what I like. 

If Trump loses the election, for the first time in a long time, I really give up hope that we can have a decent society for a long time. I mean, I do think we will correct ourselves eventually, but I think it will be bad. Because the guys on Biden's side - well, they are scary. Not all of them, of course. Some of my best friends are voting for him. But, I mean the radicals who are slowly populating the party like the Borg or Replicators, depending on whether you prefer Star Trek or Star Gate, a media which has mostly given up the idea of journalism and a good deal of government, which panders to whoever will elect them. Someday they might decide, unless our education system changes dramatically (and, no, it's not likely) that Socialists are necessary to form a majority (essentially the situation now) - which is exactly how the Germans ended up with Hitler as Chancellor, except then, they were right-wing monsters fighting the socialist or communist monster. And, it starts right now, with this election. For the first time I agree with what Sean Hannity said for years - this is the most important election in our lifetime.  

Why will I give up hope? Because I see a country so filled with self-loathing that it can't see when things are actually going well, can't bear to see anything that he does as good (they say this all the time) even if it's an almost unparalleled accomplishment in the Middle East (for which someone at least, nominated him for the Nobel Prize - which would be impressive if it hadn't become a joke). And because the great economy prior to the pandemic had - had - to be Obama's doing (although oddly, they don't blame him for the racial insanity which actually did restart during his term).  Some people hate Trump so much that they don't care if voting Ds in destroys their personal life or even if a meteor hits the earth. Well, they say that. I think they'd change their minds, but . . . they think it. 

It's not going to be much better under Trump, because the same crazies are still out there. But, better than if we have them running around the White House and Capitol.

Even Trump has just offered a bribe to blacks - his platinum plan - a half-trillion dollars, declaring the KKK and the Nazi Party, both of which have less people in them than a really big school district - and I mean all the KKKers and Neo-Nazis in the whole country as opposed to one big school district. According to the Anti-Defamation League - hardly right-wingers, right, there are only 3,000 in the whole country. Nazis? Well, I couldn't find a total - but the Wikipedia article says the largest Neo-Nazi group in the country has 400 people and there are 3 larger organizations. Let's give them some ooomph though and say 2000. So, 5000 hate-filled morons on the right, against tens, maybe hundreds of thousands on the left - who many people seem fine with - BLM, Antifa, DSA, despite the fact that their united movement repeatedly burns buildings (sometimes with cops in them), beats up people, tries to and does kill cops and others, attacks regular people - every day - and are the best-funded revolutionary movement/gangs in the history of the world. Despite the fact that the media is overwhelmingly of the left persuasion, how come no one is reporting right-wing violence every day? Because, it doesn't really happen relatively much. When they do almost anything, even in self-defense, the idiot government arrests them. Yes, occasionally they are violent too, and it's always horrible, but it's like comparing a pro-wrestling tag team to the Olympic teams of every country. Actually, it is like comparing the number of panda bears in zoos to the number visitors to zoos.   

You know what, I just can't think of a clever analogy right now. But my point is, Trump just made the Klan and Neo-Nazis "terror-groups" as a sop to the crazies on the left who are actually daily threatening and acting against our company. So, he sucks too, but at least he's for a border and the police, actually against racism (he at least stopped the pseudo-scientific "critical race theory" being taught to federal workers; it's another name for racism).

Go ahead, if they are genuine threats, make the Klan/Nazis terrorists too, but can we please include the groups that threaten cities and the country? And are routinely doing horrible things to it. If Trump and Biden and even Obama say these acts aren't civil rights, but vicious crimes, shouldn't we figure that out as a country?

Trump and Biden actually have a lot in common.

They are both rich, older white men.

They are both either pathological liars or just constantly wrong about everything. 

One can't help saying stupid things that don't help him at all. The other can't help saying stupid things that make him look like an idiot. Which is which? You tell me. You can make an argument either way.

Why pick one? I'm picking the one whose party is for borders, the police, not out burning and killing (not even remotely close), not wanting to pack the Supreme Court (so they win every case), not wanting to end the electoral college (so that NY and California pick each president), which doesn't carry on like the Ds did in the Kavanaugh hearing (like fascists), after they lost a gun-control fight and took over the floor, during the impeachment hearings, etc.

I don't like Trump. I don't even like Republicans or conservatives. But, he'd better win. They'd better win. 

Someday, I will go back to my Zen state. Not right now. 

POSTSCRIPT: THE DAY AFTER

Still in shock. Good God. 

Here are my main thoughts:

Objectively speaking, Biden looks and acts more "presidential." It's much easier to like him, even to listen to him speak. Trump landed more blows (it was a windmill style of debating) and a few hard ones, but missed many opportunities. And, I think . . . I think (can hardly believe it - did I misunderstand), he even called Joe "no. 2" during the debate, and everyone let it slide. Really, someone, did that happen?

But, to be fair to Trump, he did have to debate the host too and Chris Wallace wasn't particularly fair, although I expect fairer than the next two will be, his questions favoring the left, in my view (e.g., asking Trump to condemn right-wing violence as the cities are being rent by left-wing violence, not asking Biden to condemn Antifa or BLM) sometimes just agreeing with Biden rather than letting them fight it out. Biden didn't even have to answer Chris's question about whether he supported BLM and he didn't call him on it at all. And Trump is right that no president in recent memory has faced this kind of opposition (back to probably Nixon). I'm sorry, but the media were like house pets to Obama, even when he wasn't nice to them, and many Republicans actually did vote for his nominees and didn't impeach him when they could have.

I don't know what the outcome of the polling will be and don't care much. I only care about what it does in the swing states. I've learned by experience, views on who won, including my own, are too biased to our own likes and dislikes to have any accuracy. 

But, I've been pessimistic about Trump winning because of the opposition he faces. We shall see. 

POST POST SCRIPT - NO, phew, someone sent me the transcript  (thank you). Amongst all the arguing, Trump did not call him no. 2, although, that's what I had thought I heard. They were arguing about, it seems, who got to go first or last - whatever. I'm relieved.